Regional Assessment of Climate Change in the Mediterranean

This introductive chapter is an overview about the importance of climate impact assessment for ecosystems and the services they provide. It is also highlighted how, in the global change perspective, not only climate but also socio-economic trends affect the vulnerability of ecosystem services and their adaptive capacity. A multidisciplinary research line in CIRCE project was devoted to the evaluation of the vulnerability of ecosystem services in the Mediterranean region to climate change and other forcings, and to the investigation of feedbacks among ecosystems, climate, water and carbon cycle, including consideration of extreme events and disturbances as fires.

The Mediterranean is one of the most vulnerable European regions to climate change, e.g. in terms of future water shortages, losses of agricultural potential and biome shifts. South-eastern Mediterranean countries differ significantly in their demographic and economic development and projected climatic changes – in particular aridification – from northern Mediterranean countries, making them generally more vulnerable. Climate change is but one driver of change in the Mediterranean, which interacts with other drivers such as land use change, urbanization, tourism, globalization etc. In combination, these drivers cause increasing pressure and often land and natural resource degradation, most prominently desertification in the south-eastern Mediterranean. CIRCE has assessed the vulnerability of agriculture and forestry as well as other ecosystem services, e.g. water provisioning and carbon storage. A range of different models at different scales have been employed to simulate these ecosystem services under global change for the full Mediterranean basin and sub-regions.

The Mediterranean is getting drier and warmer, more frequent and intense summer temperature extremes have been observed. Heat waves and its often associa­ted droughts may strongly impact carbon fluxes and thus the carbon sequestration potential of ecosystems. Drought effects may last longer than the drought event itself due to delayed (ecosystem specific) recovery and/or secondary impacts such as altered mortality, pest and pathogen invasions or increased fire risk. Droughts are the main source of inter-annual variation in terrestrial carbon sequestration and its timing is a crucial factor owing to the strong seasonality of Mediterranean climate. The net carbon balance at ecosystem level to regional climate change is hard to predict since a panoply of interacting and partly compensating processes is affected. It is very likely that increased drought intensity and duration will affect primary productivity of the vegetation, but at the same time respiration processes are also reduced, hence compensating the effects on GPP. The Mediterranean can be considered as one of the “hot spot” areas for recent and projected climate change (Giorgi, 2006). As drought and heat waves are expected to become much more intense, longer lasting and more frequent, the carbon sequestration of Mediterranean ecosystems may be reduced by droughts, or even turning into net carbon sources to the atmosphere.

Climatic change is expected to have important impact on different economic sectors (e.g. agriculture, forestry, energy consumptions, tourism, etc.). Among human activities, agricultural sector is likely to be particularly exposed to climate change hazard, since animal and crop growth are largely determined by the weather conditions during their life cycles. As a consequence, understanding the potential impacts of climate change on the agriculture has become increasingly important and is of a main concern especially for the sustainability of agricultural system and for policy-making purposes. Climate change is likely to affect agricultural systems very differently in various parts of the world. In the Mediterranean area particular attention should be devoted to climate change impact and adaptation assessments on typical Mediterranean crops like grapevine (Vitis vinifera L.), durum wheat (Triticum turgidum subs. durum Desf.) and olive (Olea europaea L.), since the projected global warming may seriously compromise the fragile equilibrium between climate and crops. In this study the impacts on durum wheat and grapevine yields, and olive suitable cultivation area were investigated for two time slices under A1B SRES scenario, at first. Then, some adaptation strategies to cope with these impacts were explored. The results indicated that projected higher temperatures resulted in a general advance of phenological stages with respect to the baseline and in a shorter inter-phase time for both durum wheat and grapevine. Despite the general decrease of time for biomass accumulation, durum wheat took advantage of the positive effect of higher CO₂ concentration, while grapevine resulted more vulnerable to warmer and drier future climate. Adaptation options, aiming at avoiding extremely high temperatures during sensible phases and prolonging the duration of the reproductive stage, resulted as positive strategies to alleviate negative impacts or exploit possible beneficial effects of a changing climate. Finally, the rising temperature will cause a northward and eastward shift of the olive tree suitable area.

The Mediterranean Region is defined according to its biogeography and bioclimate. Climate is characterized by mild winters and hot, dry summer. Biodiversity is rich and landscape patterns are complex. Mediterranean forests have historically been subjected to numerous threats (forest fires, over-exploitation, deforestation, degradation), that are today accentuated under climate and land use changes. In this respect, the Mediterranean area appears among the most vulnerable areas to global change. Forest area in the region has increased by 10% between 1990 and 2000. Roundwood nowadays represents 60% and woodfuel 40% of total wood products (125 Mm³). Sometime non-wood forest products and services are more important as they represent 60–70% of total economic value (133 € ha⁻¹) of Mediterranean forests. There are already evidences of impacts of recent climate change on ecophysiology, productivity, dieback and distribution of Mediterranean forests and these impacts will become worse in the future, particularly for increased evaporative demand and repeated extreme events. An interdisciplinary research agenda, integrated with monitoring networks and projection models is needed to provide information at all levels of decision making and to implement a framework of dynamic and adaptive management planning.

Fire regime has been affected by climate changes in the past, and is expected to do so in relation to the projected climate warming in the near future. For the Mediterranean Basin, higher fire risk, longer fire season, and more frequent large, severe fires are expected. The projected increased drought for the Mediterranean Basin would make ecosystems more vulnerable to fire, and more difficult to restore after fire. Ecosystem vulnerability is assessed considering soil susceptibility to post-fire erosion, and vegetation capacity to recover after fire.

In the perspective of a more severe fire regime and harsher climate, two main strategies are proposed: (1) mitigation strategies to reduce fire impacts; and (2) adaptation strategies to improve ecosystems capacity to cope with the new climate and fire regime. The focus of adaptation will be on strategies for vegetation management to reduce fire hazard, and increase ecosystem resilience, especially in highly vulnerable areas.

Restoration techniques are proposed to increase ecosystem resilience to fire by using resprouting woody species, and by increasing the diversity of species in post-fire afforestation/reforestation projects. To face increased drought, several techniques to improve water availability and water use efficiency for introduced seedling are discussed.

Finally, the landscape dimension of fire prevention and restoration is addressed through a spatial decision support system, including a fire propagation model combined with an ecosystem vulnerability model in GIS format. The system allows assessing fire risk, identifying values at risk, and prioritizing fire prevention and post-fire restoration actions.

This chapter resumes major and common findings among chapters 2 to 7. Focus is given to the spatial heterogeneity of Mediterranean region in terms of ecosystem vulnerability to climate change impacts. Further, the role of spatio-temporal scale of evaluation is noteworthy, as well as taking into account extreme events and thresholds in the interaction among climate and its effects.

The challenge of characterizing the social and economic impacts of climate change is an extremely complicated one given the multitude of uncertainties that multiply and plague efforts to model future climates. And yet, for all these difficulties, the crucial importance of succeeding in this task is intuitively grasped. Should we fail to appraise the consequences of climate change or indolently decide to leave the challenge unheeded, the burdens and hazards for future generations will be seriously aggravated.

This section introduces the main methodologies used by the climate change impact science to assess economically the consequences of climate change. Furthermore it presents the main findings of this literature focusing specifically on possible future economic consequences of climate change in the Mediterranean area emphasizing the new knowledge in this field brought by the CIRCE project. The robust finding of the literature points out a low economic vulnerability of Euro-Mediterranean countries (with losses ranging from −0.25 to −1.4% of GDP for extreme temperature scenarios or even slight gains), and a higher vulnerability of North African and Eastern-Mediterranean countries (of roughly 2% of GDP by the mid of the century). Against this background the CIRCE project proposes one of the first attempts to perform a detailed integrated impact assessment exercise focusing on the Mediterranean area. With the IPCC A1B SRES scenario as ­reference, impacts related to energy demand, sea-level rise and tourism, have been economically assessed by a general equilibrium model. The Mediterranean as a whole loses 1.2% of GDP with the Northern-Mediterranean countries clearly less ­vulnerable than the Southern-Mediterranean ones. Among the former the average loss in 2050 is 0.5% of GDP, while among the latter this more than doubles. Particularly adversely affected are Cyprus, Albania and the Eastern Mediterranean region (−1.6, −2.4, −1.5% of GDP respectively in 2050). In terms of impact types, tourism and sea-level rise are clearly the most threatening, while GDP impacts induced by demand re-composition of energy use is less of an issue and often positive.

Water is scarce in Mediterranean countries: cities are crowded with increasing demand; food is produced with large amounts of water; ecosystems demand more water than is often available; drought affects all. As climate change impacts become more noticeable and costlier, some current water management strategies will not be useful. According to the findings of CIRCE, the areas with limited water resources will increase in the coming decades (Parts 1 and 2) with major consequences for the way we produce food and we protect ecosystems (Part 3). Based on these projections this chapter discusses water policy priorities for climate change adaptation in the Mediterranean. We first summarize the main challenges to water resources in Mediterranean countries and outline the risks and opportunities for water under climate change based on previous studies. Recognizing the difficulty to go from precipitation to water policy, we then present a framework to evaluate water availability in response to natural and management conditions, with an example of application in the Ebro basin that exemplifies other Mediterranean areas. Then we evaluate adaptive capacity to understand the ability of Mediterranean countries to face, respond and recover from climate change impacts on water resources. Social and economic factors are key drivers of inequality in the adaptive capacity across the region. Based on the assessment of impacts and adaptive capacity we suggest thresholds for water policy to respond to climate change and link water scarcity indicators to relevant potential adaptation strategies. Our results suggest the need to further prioritize socially and economically sensitive policies.

Mediterranean countries have started implementing adaptation to climate change for a decade. This chapter aims to draw a panorama of this current adaptation effort in contrasted contexts of action – typically developed and developing countries. It identifies and discusses early developments of this endeavor, demonstrating its fragmentation and relative lack of ambition. It highlights current disconnections between practice and theory, and insists on the current minimal use of climate information in designing adaptation measures. It finally builds on the analysis of Mediterranean adaptation practices to provide guiding principles for the future elaboration of adaptation strategies in the region, focusing on timing, integration, and contextualization.

This chapter presents a review and new scientific evidence on climate change health risks in the Mediterranean. It summarizes the results of the work of the research line on health in CIRCE, which focused on two examples of health risks related to climate change: 1. heat and air pollution and 2. infectious diseases.Responsible authors differ for the specific thematic sections: Sect. 13.2: Tanja Wolf, Bettina Menne; Sect. 13.3: Klea Katsouyanni, Antonis Analitis, Paola Michelozzi, Daniela D’Ippoliti; Sect. 13.4: Miguel Angel Rodriguez-Arias, Tanja Wolf, Xavier Rodo, Afif Ben Salah; Sadok Chlif; Sect. 13.5: Tanja Wolf, Elsa Casimiro, Bettina Menne.

This chapter presents an analysis of the conditions under which energy can be a lever of sustainable development for the N. Africa (The countries considered are: Algeria, Libya, Egypt, Morocco and Tunisia.) countries in the context of intensification of greenhouse gas abatement policies. The analysis begins with the identification of the distribution, uses and potential uses of the energy resources in the N. African countries. Then growth opportunities for N. African economies are examined in the context of an increasing intensity of climate policy and of a widening of its geographical scope providing opportunities for cross border integration of energy markets, for extension of emission permit markets and the use of JI and CDM development mechanisms (JI (Joint Implementation) and CDM (Clean Development Mechanism) are market instruments introduced in the Kyoto Protocol). In particular, alternative scenario simulations are used to analyze how the N. African countries may gain from incorporation into Europe’s greenhouse gas abatement effort. From a methodological point of view the analysis is performed by means of a computable general equilibrium model, named GEM-E3-Med, specifically constructed for the CIRCE project (CIRCE Integrated Project – Climate Change and Impact Research: the Mediterranean Environment. Supported by the European Commission’s Sixth Framework Programme, Sustainable Development, Global Change and Ecosystems). The analysis is quantitative and focuses on the effect of alternative scenarios on competitiveness, welfare, employment and economic growth of the Mediterranean economies and in particular the N. African countries.

This chapter estimates the trends, impacts and responses of Mediterranean tourism, with special emphasis on coastal areas. It presents some part of the work done by two research lines (Economic impacts, Induced policies), namely scenarios for future tourism flows (regional and national scales) and a method for assessing vulnerability of local destinations.

A great deal of climate change research focuses on forced migration as a response to sea level rise and the loss of livelihoods. By contrast much less research considers altered patterns of amenity led international retirement migration as a response to climate change. An increase in the number of individuals reaching retirement age and improvements in life expectancy combined with changes serving to reduce the cost of international migration have increased sharply the number of individuals choosing to retire abroad. This phenomenon has a range of socioeconomic and political implications not least in terms of the provision of public goods and services. Despite difficulties in defining ‘international retirement migration’ surveys suggest that climate is the main push and pull factor. As such, the pattern of international retirement migration is potentially impacted by climate change. Using regression analysis this chapter analyses cross country data for 2005 on the stock of individuals living abroad entitled to a UK state pension in each of 210 different countries. The analysis reveals that international retirement migration is higher in countries with warmer winters and cooler summers, and with less precipitation and more sunshine. Climate however seems less important that whether a country has former colonial links with the UK and whether English is widely spoken.

Is green growth an option for tackling the challenge of climate change in the Mediterranean? The chapter investigates this question in two main steps. First, climate change is analysed in a perspective of fear and in a perspective of con fi dence. Against this background, the most likely but undesirable climate related future for the Mediterranean is outlined. This is contrasted with the opportunity for green growth in the Mediterranean. Particular win-win strategies for the Mediterranean are renewable energies and afforestation.

People is the common theme in this part of the RACCM. The part gathers results from the CIRCE project that concern socio-ecological systems all around the Mediterranean. Due to the interdisciplinarity of the project, chapters in this part discuss climate change and societies from different perspectives, such as an economic, social science, or the health sector’s point of view. The chapters treat such diverse topics as socio-economic assessment, adaptive capacity and adaptation strategies, health, energy demand and mitigation options, water, tourism, retirement migration, and future options for the Mediterranean. Thus, this part offers a broad overview over aspects of human life in the Mediterranean region influenced by, and influencing, climate change. In the present section we first give a brief outline of the different chapters dealing with People, then indicate main findings about specific topics, and finally highlight some themes recurring through the different chapters.