1 Introduction
2 Literature review
3 Data and methodology
3.1 Platform selection
3.2 Wikifolio data
Measurement period | 1 Month | 6 Months | ||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
\(TVol\) | \(IVol\) | \(TSkew\) | \(ISkew2F\) | \(ISkew3F\) | \(TVol\) | \(IVol\) | \(TSkew\) | \(ISkew2F\) | \(ISkew3F\) | |
Panel A: Mean wikifolio characteristics USD | ||||||||||
All wikifolios | 1.688 | 1.301 | −0.032 | 0.012 | −0.004 | 1.891 | 1.703 | −0.072 | 0.044 | 0.026 |
Leverage | 2.978 | 2.347 | −0.014 | 0.017 | 0.002 | 3.608 | 3.352 | −0.048 | 0.040 | 0.013 |
w/o Leverage | 1.177 | 0.887 | −0.039 | 0.010 | −0.006 | 1.231 | 1.069 | −0.081 | 0.045 | 0.031 |
Published | 1.523 | 1.179 | −0.022 | 0.025 | 0.007 | 1.725 | 1.562 | −0.050 | 0.070 | 0.042 |
Investable | 1.598 | 1.223 | −0.048 | −0.003 | −0.020 | 1.836 | 1.640 | −0.098 | 0.020 | 0.004 |
Closing | 3.241 | 2.560 | −0.008 | 0.036 | 0.003 | 3.404 | 3.059 | 0.083 | 0.165 | 0.173 |
Closed | 2.764 | 2.153 | 0.010 | 0.043 | 0.035 | 2.911 | 2.672 | −0.001 | 0.082 | 0.093 |
Panel B: Monthly mean wikifolio characteristics USD | ||||||||||
All wikifolios | 1.574 | 1.200 | 0.015 | 0.062 | 0.045 | 1.725 | 1.540 | −0.046 | 0.065 | 0.055 |
Leverage | 2.598 | 2.019 | 0.030 | 0.062 | 0.045 | 3.017 | 2.788 | 0.029 | 0.109 | 0.093 |
w/o Leverage | 1.186 | 0.888 | 0.007 | 0.059 | 0.042 | 1.242 | 1.076 | −0.060 | 0.059 | 0.051 |
Published | 1.445 | 1.101 | 0.026 | 0.066 | 0.049 | 1.590 | 1.422 | −0.040 | 0.079 | 0.059 |
Investable | 1.469 | 1.114 | 0.002 | 0.064 | 0.038 | 1.652 | 1.464 | −0.045 | 0.071 | 0.060 |
Closing | 2.606 | 2.044 | 0.017 | 0.065 | 0.032 | 2.784 | 2.479 | 0.023 | 0.150 | 0.145 |
Closed | 2.678 | 2.128 | 0.019 | 0.066 | 0.058 | 3.189 | 2.958 | −0.023 | 0.050 | 0.058 |
Panel A: Raw returns USD | Panel B: Panel regression estimates USD | ||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
\(\alpha\) | \(RMRF\) | \(SMB\) | \(HML\) | \(RMW\) | \(CMA\) | \(WML\) | \(R^{2}\) | ||
All wikifolios | |||||||||
Mean | 0.5076 | 0.0948 | 0.5543*** | −0.0836 | −0.2484 | 0.0013 | |||
Median | 0.2083 | (0.28) | (6.51) | (−0.48) | (−1.30) | ||||
SD | 51.0441 | 0.1151 | 0.5470*** | −0.0821 | −0.2782 | −0.0489 | 0.0013 | ||
(0.35) | (6.47) | (−0.47) | (−1.40) | (−0.38) | |||||
0.1520 | 0.5225*** | −0.1589 | −0.2943 | −0.2792 | −0.1515 | 0.0014 | |||
(0.43) | (5.33) | (−0.95) | (−1.30) | (−0.93) | (−0.56) | ||||
0.1787 | 0.5144*** | −0.1590 | −0.3434 | −0.2952 | −0.1340 | −0.0581 | 0.0014 | ||
(0.54) | (5.34) | (−0.95) | (−1.49) | (−1.00) | (−0.48) | (−0.44) | |||
Leverage | |||||||||
Mean | 0.3756 | 0.0085 | 0.5749*** | −0.1450 | −0.0435 | 0.0004 | |||
Median | −0.0364 | (0.02) | (6.16) | (−0.59) | (−0.17) | ||||
SD | 95.2699 | 0.0224 | 0.5676*** | −0.1437 | −0.0703 | −0.0400 | 0.0004 | ||
(0.05) | (6.08) | (−0.58) | (−0.28) | (−0.22) | |||||
0.1267 | 0.5352*** | −0.2840 | −0.2789 | −0.5917 | 0.0032 | 0.0004 | |||
(0.26) | (5.08) | (−1.44) | (−1.13) | (−1.14) | (0.01) | ||||
0.1556 | 0.5225*** | −0.2846 | −0.3434 | −0.6124 | 0.0220 | −0.0724 | 0.0004 | ||
(0.32) | (4.87) | (−1.44) | (−1.13) | (−1.14) | (0.06) | (−0.37) | |||
w/o Leverage | |||||||||
Mean | 0.5600 | 0.1306 | 0.5492*** | −0.0623 | −0.3254 | 0.0971 | |||
Median | 0.3042 | (0.39) | (6.02) | (−0.37) | (−1.70) | ||||
SD | 6.0386 | 0.1507 | 0.5428*** | −0.0608 | −0.3522 | −0.0457 | 0.0974 | ||
(0.47) | (5.85) | (−0.36) | (−1.78) | (−0.34) | |||||
0.1681 | 0.5203*** | −0.1168 | −0.3063 | −0.1715 | −0.2047 | 0.0988 | |||
(0.48) | (5.10) | (−0.67) | (−1.28) | (−0.60) | (−0.77) | ||||
0.1907 | 0.5143*** | −0.1167 | −0.3448 | −0.1841 | −0.1901 | −0.0466 | 0.0990 | ||
(0.58) | (5.06) | (−0.67) | (−1.50) | (−0.67) | (−0.70) | (−0.35) | |||
Published | |||||||||
Mean | 0.3981 | −0.0025 | 0.5256*** | −0.0854 | −0.2730 | 0.0204 | |||
Median | 0.1904 | (−0.01) | (5.86) | (−0.50) | (−1.44) | ||||
SD | 12.4578 | 0.0090 | 0.5216*** | −0.0845 | −0.2896 | −0.0277 | 0.0204 | ||
(0.03) | (5.60) | (−0.49) | (−1.45) | (−0.20) | |||||
0.0229 | 0.4957*** | −0.1307 | −0.2078 | −0.1054 | −0.2510 | 0.0208 | |||
(0.07) | (4.95) | (−0.76) | (−0.85) | (−0.36) | (−0.95) | ||||
0.0339 | 0.4924*** | −0.1307 | −0.2276 | −0.1118 | −0.2445 | −0.0241 | 0.0208 | ||
(0.11) | (4.86) | (−0.76) | (−0.96) | (−0.39) | (−0.92) | (−0.18) | |||
Investable | |||||||||
Mean | 0.5917 | 0.1516 | 0.5824*** | −0.1387 | −0.3405* | 0.0018 | |||
Median | 0.2536 | (0.44) | (7.05) | (−0.82) | (−1.79) | ||||
SD | 48.0254 | 0.1537 | 0.5816*** | −0.1385 | −0.3435* | −0.0052 | 0.0018 | ||
(0.47) | (7.27) | (−0.82) | (−1.71) | (−0.04) | |||||
0.1977 | 0.5661*** | −0.1924 | −0.4328* | −0.2496 | −0.0162 | 0.0018 | |||
(0.57) | (5.91) | (−1.16) | (−1.96) | (−0.93) | (−0.06) | ||||
0.2056 | 0.5636*** | −0.1925 | −0.4470* | −0.2544 | −0.0116 | −0.0177 | 0.0018 | ||
(0.62) | (6.11) | (−1.16) | (−1.90) | (−0.96) | (−0.04) | (−0.14) | |||
Closing | |||||||||
Mean | 0.4536 | −0.2782 | 1.2438*** | 0.6929 | 0.1242 | 0.0188 | |||
Median | 0.4765 | (−0.35) | (4.27) | (1.28) | (0.26) | ||||
SD | 31.2105 | 0.0118 | 1.1162*** | 0.7405 | −0.4283 | −0.8894 | 0.0217 | ||
(0.02) | (4.67) | (1.38) | (−0.81) | (−1.64) | |||||
−0.5721 | 1.2280*** | 0.9744 | 1.4049 | 1.7762 | -1.2576 | 0.0214 | |||
(−0.71) | (3.87) | (1.57) | (1.26) | (1.14) | (−1.02) | ||||
−0.2797 | 1.1191*** | 0.9869 | 0.7512 | 1.5678 | -1.0808 | −0.7902 | 0.0236 | ||
(−0.38) | (3.98) | (1.65) | (0.77) | (1.04) | (−0.91) | (−1.60) | |||
Closed | |||||||||
Mean | 0.5162 | 0.1909 | 0.5003*** | 0.1765 | 0.4884 | 0.0002 | |||
Median | 0.0361 | (0.26) | (3.27) | (0.39) | (0.81) | ||||
SD | 117.6044 | 0.3020 | 0.4579*** | 0.1852 | 0.3036 | −0.2295 | 0.0002 | ||
(0.37) | (3.04) | (0.40) | (0.64) | (−0.80) | |||||
0.6669 | 0.3302** | −0.3856 | −0.0727 | -1.7022 | −0.0681 | 0.0004 | |||
(0.65) | (2.26) | (−1.25) | (−0.22) | (−1.16) | (−0.13) | ||||
0.8442 | 0.2834* | −0.3832 | −0.4516 | -1.8187 | 0.1367 | −0.3282 | 0.0004 | ||
(0.73) | (1.72) | (−1.24) | (−0.82) | (−1.18) | (0.19) | (−0.85) |
Panel C: Raw returns EUR | Panel D: Panel regression estimates EUR | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
\(\alpha\) | \(RMRF\) | \(SMB\) | \(HML\) | \(WML\) | \(R^{2}\) | ||
All wikifolios | |||||||
Mean | 0.3788 | 0.1530 | 0.4264*** | −0.1439* | −0.0956 | 0.0013 | |
Median | 0.2127 | (0.65) | (7.18) | (−1.86) | (−0.58) | ||
SD | 51.7708 | 0.3004 | 0.4584*** | −0.0801 | −0.1036 | −0.1657** | 0.0014 |
(1.21) | (7.57) | (−0.99) | (−0.66) | (−2.09) | |||
Leverage | |||||||
Mean | 0.2571 | 0.0300 | 0.3990*** | −0.1560 | 0.0985 | 0.0004 | |
Median | −0.0487 | (0.08) | (4.43) | (−1.13) | (0.29) | ||
SD | 96.7035 | 0.1658 | 0.4317*** | −0.0822 | 0.0892 | −0.1735 | 0.0004 |
(0.40) | (5.22) | (−0.67) | (0.27) | (−1.32) | |||
w/o Leverage | |||||||
Mean | 0.4272 | 0.2003 | 0.4374*** | −0.1389* | −0.1741 | 0.1134 | |
Median | 0.3292 | (0.91) | (7.37) | (−1.89) | (−1.56) | ||
SD | 5.6197 | 0.3532 | 0.4695*** | −0.0781 | −0.1816* | −0.1643** | 0.1184 |
(1.56) | (7.74) | (−0.99) | (−1.73) | (−2.25) | |||
Published | |||||||
Mean | 0.2701 | 0.0728 | 0.4201*** | −0.1388* | −0.1738 | 0.0220 | |
Median | 0.1700 | (0.34) | (7.36) | (−1.78) | (−1.47) | ||
SD | 12.2547 | 0.2187 | 0.4530*** | −0.0729 | −0.1817 | −0.1673** | 0.0231 |
(0.97) | (7.79) | (−0.89) | (−1.62) | (−2.38) | |||
Investable | |||||||
Mean | 0.4812 | 0.2332 | 0.4854*** | −0.1051 | −0.2065* | 0.0018 | |
Median | 0.2997 | (1.02) | (7.83) | (−1.34) | (−1.76) | ||
SD | 48.5424 | 0.3348 | 0.5080*** | −0.0560 | −0.2107* | −0.1223 | 0.0019 |
(1.45) | (7.73) | (−0.65) | (−1.87) | (−1.49) | |||
Closing | |||||||
Mean | 0.3622 | 0.0489 | 1.0187*** | −0.3227 | −0.6806* | 0.0193 | |
Median | 0.4191 | (0.06) | (4.12) | (−1.03) | (−1.74) | ||
SD | 31.0383 | 0.8001 | 1.2253*** | 0.2611 | −0.7041** | -1.1890** | 0.0268 |
(1.12) | (4.52) | (0.63) | (−2.02) | (−2.08) | |||
Closed | |||||||
Mean | 0.2913 | 0.0581 | 0.1423 | −0.3639 | 0.8070 | 0.0004 | |
Median | −0.0287 | (0.09) | (0.83) | (−1.61) | (1.06) | ||
SD | 119.7828 | 0.3622 | 0.1901 | −0.2997 | 0.7743 | −0.2340 | 0.0004 |
(0.45) | (1.30) | (−1.52) | (1.05) | (−1.26) |
3.3 Transaction data
3.4 Compensation of signal providers
3.5 Sorting criteria for wikifolios
3.6 Stock market data and definition of lottery-like stocks
3.7 Regression model
3.7.1 Selection of main independent variables
3.7.2 Monthly transactions
3.7.3 Monthly relative transactions lottery-like stocks
4 Results and discussion
4.1 Monthly transactions
\(D1\) | \(D2\) | \(D3\) | \(D4\) | \(D5\) | \(D6\) | \(D7\) | \(D8\) | \(D9\) | \(D10\) | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Number | 7 | 16 | 26 | 39 | 58 | 87 | 136 | 230 | 460 | 3,085 |
Volume | 1 | 3 | 7 | 12 | 21 | 37 | 67 | 102 | 210 | 50,552 |
4.2 Transactions lottery-like stocks
Panel A: Number lottery | ||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
(1) | (2) | (3) | (4) | (5) | (6) | (7) | (8) | (9) | (10) | (11) | (12) | (13) | (14) | |
\(\alpha\) | 0.0541*** | 0.0541*** | 0.0551*** | 0.0319*** | 0.0362*** | 0.0352*** | 0.0383*** | 0.0589*** | 0.0589*** | 0.0593*** | 0.0330*** | 0.0389*** | 0.0363*** | 0.0408*** |
(19.42) | (17.75) | (63.40) | (37.16) | (33.56) | (44.59) | (34.01) | (19.97) | (18.03) | (67.42) | (36.96) | (35.32) | (43.64) | (35.56) | |
\(RR\) | −0.0098*** | −0.0098*** | −0.0095*** | −0.0006** | −0.0031*** | −0.0006** | −0.0030*** | −0.0116*** | −0.0116*** | −0.0112*** | −0.0010*** | −0.0040*** | −0.0010*** | −0.0039*** |
(−13.43) | (−12.23) | (−34.49) | (−2.13) | (−11.02) | (−2.20) | (−10.88) | (−14.18) | (−12.79) | (−39.95) | (−3.41) | (−13.75) | (−3.37) | (−13.46) | |
\({RR}^{2}\) | 0.0009*** | 0.0009*** | 0.0009*** | 0.0001*** | 0.0003*** | 0.0001*** | 0.0003*** | 0.0010*** | 0.0010*** | 0.0010*** | 0.0001*** | 0.0004*** | 0.0001*** | 0.0004*** |
(14.19) | (12.94) | (36.96) | (3.36) | (12.40) | (3.45) | (12.34) | (14.81) | (13.43) | (41.48) | (4.11) | (14.23) | (4.11) | (14.04) | |
\(Leverage\) | 0.0023* | 0.0023* | 0.0027*** | −0.0024*** | −0.0025*** | 0.0018 | 0.0018 | 0.0022*** | −0.0027*** | −0.0028*** | ||||
(1.90) | (1.80) | (5.00) | (−3.25) | (−3.40) | (1.53) | (1.45) | (4.20) | (−3.62) | (−3.74) | |||||
\(RealMoney\) | 0.0081*** | 0.0081*** | 0.0080*** | 0.0074*** | 0.0075*** | 0.0079*** | 0.0079** | 0.0077*** | 0.0072*** | 0.0073*** | ||||
(3.01) | (2.65) | (9.86) | (5.26) | (5.36) | (2.92) | (2.58) | (9.51) | (5.15) | (5.23) | |||||
\(Investable\) | −0.0034*** | −0.0034*** | −0.0020*** | −0.0002 | 0.0009 | −0.0035*** | −0.0035*** | −0.0021*** | −0.0002 | 0.0008 | ||||
(−3.46) | (−3.01) | (−4.64) | (−0.21) | (1.27) | (−3.51) | (−3.06) | (−4.96) | (−0.33) | (1.11) | |||||
\(Closing\) | −0.0133** | −0.0133** | −0.0132*** | −0.0125*** | −0.0116*** | −0.0136*** | −0.0136** | −0.0136*** | −0.0127*** | −0.0118*** | ||||
(−2.58) | (−2.48) | (−4.37) | (−3.11) | (−2.88) | (−2.68) | (−2.58) | (−4.51) | (−3.15) | (−2.93) | |||||
\(Closed\) | −0.0078*** | −0.0078*** | −0.0050*** | −0.0024*** | −0.0008 | −0.0078*** | −0.0078*** | −0.0051*** | −0.0025*** | −0.0009 | ||||
(−6.14) | (−5.44) | (−7.67) | (−2.79) | (−0.87) | (−6.07) | (−5.38) | (−7.84) | (−2.90) | (−1.01) | |||||
\(Fee\) | 0.0106* | 0.0106 | 0.0109*** | 0.0221*** | 0.0213*** | 0.0098 | 0.0098 | 0.0101*** | 0.0215*** | 0.0208*** | ||||
(1.76) | (1.47) | (4.25) | (4.95) | (4.78) | (1.64) | (1.37) | (3.94) | (4.82) | (4.66) | |||||
\(Media\) | −0.0143*** | −0.0143** | −0.0140*** | −0.0135*** | −0.0135** | −0.0133*** | ||||||||
(−2.86) | (−2.16) | (−6.21) | (−2.73) | (−2.07) | (−5.88) | |||||||||
\(Manager\) | −0.0106*** | −0.0106** | −0.0101*** | −0.0101** | −0.0101** | −0.0096*** | ||||||||
(−2.70) | (−2.28) | (−5.71) | (−2.60) | (−2.18) | (−5.43) | |||||||||
\(Theme\) | 0.0285 | 0.0285*** | 0.0282** | 0.0295 | 0.0295*** | 0.0287** | ||||||||
(0.79) | (13.46) | (2.27) | (0.81) | (16.29) | (2.31) | |||||||||
\(wikiNumber\) | −0.0001 | −0.0001 | −0.0001** | −0.0001 | −0.0001 | −0.0001** | ||||||||
(−0.71) | (−0.44) | (−2.01) | (−0.98) | (−0.61) | (−2.59) | |||||||||
\({lnT}^{num}\) | 0.0042*** | 0.0042*** | 0.0040*** | 0.0016*** | 0.0026*** | 0.0016*** | 0.0026*** | 0.0042*** | 0.0042*** | 0.0040*** | 0.0016*** | 0.0026*** | 0.0016*** | 0.0026*** |
(12.84) | (11.01) | (27.02) | (8.15) | (14.15) | (7.92) | (14.11) | (12.81) | (10.98) | (26.85) | (8.15) | (14.22) | (7.91) | (14.14) | |
\(ETF\) | −0.0195*** | −0.0195*** | −0.0187*** | −0.0100*** | −0.0137*** | −0.0101*** | −0.0137*** | −0.0194*** | −0.0194*** | −0.0186*** | −0.0100*** | −0.0137*** | −0.0102*** | −0.0137*** |
(−24.19) | (−20.87) | (−46.33) | (−17.79) | (−28.69) | (−18.03) | (−28.59) | (−23.98) | (−20.68) | (−45.92) | (−17.81) | (−28.70) | (−18.05) | (−28.60) | |
\(ETP\) | −0.0040*** | −0.0040*** | −0.0027*** | −0.0091*** | −0.0083*** | −0.0074*** | −0.0065*** | −0.0040*** | −0.0040*** | −0.0026*** | −0.0091*** | −0.0082*** | −0.0074*** | −0.0064*** |
(−3.25) | (−2.98) | (−2.70) | (−8.36) | (−7.94) | (−6.74) | (−6.24) | (−3.24) | (−2.98) | (−2.65) | (−8.36) | (−7.89) | (−6.73) | (−6.19) | |
\(Derivative\) | −0.0332*** | −0.0332*** | −0.0330*** | −0.0192*** | −0.0250*** | −0.0180*** | −0.0243*** | −0.0336*** | −0.0336*** | −0.0333*** | −0.0192*** | −0.0250*** | −0.0180*** | −0.0244*** |
(−22.91) | (−21.38) | (−55.74) | (−23.41) | (−35.83) | (−22.00) | (−34.83) | (−22.80) | (−21.28) | (−56.31) | (−23.43) | (−35.95) | (−22.02) | (−34.95) | |
\(HWM\) | −0.0013*** | −0.0013 | −0.0023*** | 0.0012*** | 0.0002 | 0.0010** | −0.0002 | −0.0007 | −0.0007 | −0.0016*** | 0.0015*** | 0.0007** | 0.0014*** | 0.0003 |
(−0.98) | (−0.98) | (−5.29) | (3.37) | (0.69) | (2.54) | (−0.49) | (−0.50) | (−0.50) | (−3.81) | (4.32) | (2.01) | (3.51) | (0.85) | |
\(Age\) | 0.0001* | 0.0001 | −0.0001*** | 0.0002*** | 0.0001*** | −0.0000 | 0.0001** | 0.0001** | 0.0000*** | 0.0002*** | 0.0001*** | 0.0000 | ||
(1.79) | (1.63) | (−5.08) | (13.61) | (11.35) | (−0.27) | (2.58) | (2.33) | (−2.66) | (13.82) | (11.85) | (0.17) | |||
\({R}^{2}\) | 0.0294 | 0.0294 | 0.0353 | 0.3015 | 0.2104 | 0.3048 | 0.2140 | 0.0307 | 0.0307 | 0.0364 | 0.3015 | 0.2104 | 0.3048 | 0.2140 |
Panel B: Number nonlottery | ||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
(1) | (2) | (3) | (4) | (5) | (6) | (7) | (8) | (9) | (10) | (11) | (12) | (13) | (14) | |
\(\alpha\) | 0.1484*** | 0.1484*** | 0.1487*** | 0.1484*** | 0.1521*** | 0.1512*** | 0.1504*** | 0.1409*** | 0.1409*** | 0.1407*** | 0.1492*** | 0.1468*** | 0.1511*** | 0.1449*** |
(29.40) | (26.96) | (85.83) | (91.84) | (71.94) | (101.74) | (68.18) | (27.82) | (25.26) | (80.27) | (88.57) | (68.01) | (96.51) | (64.58) | |
\(RR\) | 0.0377*** | 0.0377*** | 0.0375*** | 0.0064*** | 0.0178*** | 0.0064*** | 0.0177*** | 0.0405*** | 0.0405*** | 0.0406*** | 0.0061*** | 0.0196*** | 0.0063*** | 0.0197*** |
(30.25) | (27.89) | (68.35) | (12.05) | (32.72) | (12.05) | (32.64) | (30.97) | (27.97) | (73.01) | (10.72) | (34.67) | (11.12) | (34.90) | |
\({RR}^{2}\) | −0.0034*** | −0.0034*** | −0.0034*** | −0.0006*** | −0.0016*** | −0.0006*** | −0.0016*** | −0.0036*** | −0.0036*** | −0.0036*** | −0.0006*** | −0.0018*** | −0.0006*** | −0.0018*** |
(−30.14) | (−27.81) | (−70.96) | (−13.67) | (−34.36) | (−13.68) | (−34.36) | (−28.31) | (−25.94) | (−74.75) | (−12.15) | (−35.54) | (−12.46) | (−35.79) | |
\(Leverage\) | −0.0138*** | −0.0138*** | −0.0141*** | −0.0331*** | −0.0330*** | −0.0126*** | −0.0126*** | −0.0129*** | −0.0321*** | −0.0321*** | ||||
(−5.00) | (−4.45) | (−13.23) | (−22.94) | (−22.93) | (−4.59) | (−4.09) | (−12.12) | (−22.25) | (−22.25) | |||||
\(RealMoney\) | −0.0168*** | −0.0168*** | −0.0171*** | −0.0200*** | −0.0201*** | −0.0159*** | −0.0159*** | −0.0162*** | −0.0193*** | −0.0194*** | ||||
(−3.05) | (−2.86) | (−10.61) | (−7.30) | (−7.36) | (−2.90) | (−2.74) | (−10.05) | (−7.03) | (−7.09) | |||||
\(Investable\) | −0.0055** | −0.0055** | −0.0052*** | 0.0016 | 0.0011 | −0.0054** | −0.0054** | −0.0048*** | 0.0020 | 0.0017 | ||||
(−2.37) | (−2.12) | (−6.25) | (1.14) | (0.80) | (−2.33) | (−2.08) | (−5.77) | (1.41) | (1.17) | |||||
\(Closing\) | −0.0138 | −0.0138 | −0.0137** | −0.0210*** | −0.0205** | −0.0131 | −0.0131 | −0.0127** | −0.0204** | −0.0197** | ||||
(−0.91) | (−0.88) | (−2.27) | (−2.66) | (−2.60) | (−0.86) | (−0.84) | (−2.12) | (−2.58) | (−2.50) | |||||
\(Closed\) | −0.0109*** | −0.0109*** | −0.0100*** | −0.0069*** | −0.0075*** | −0.0112*** | −0.0112*** | −0.0097*** | −0.0067*** | −0.0070*** | ||||
(−3.30) | (−2.96) | (−7.65) | (−4.08) | (−4.31) | (−3.37) | (−3.02) | (−7.44) | (−3.95) | (−4.04) | |||||
\(Fee\) | −0.1543*** | −0.1543*** | −0.1521*** | −0.0694*** | −0.0683*** | −0.1537*** | −0.1537*** | −0.1508*** | −0.0675*** | −0.0663*** | ||||
(−10.73) | (−9.00) | (−29.75) | (−7.93) | (−7.83) | (−10.75) | (−9.01) | (−29.51) | (−7.72) | (−7.60) | |||||
\(Media\) | 0.0258 | 0.0258 | 0.0246*** | 0.0234 | 0.0234 | 0.0221*** | ||||||||
(1.62) | (1.49) | (5.46) | (1.50) | (1.37) | (4.90) | |||||||||
\(Manager\) | −0.0289** | −0.0289** | −0.0296*** | −0.0302*** | −0.0302** | −0.0310*** | ||||||||
(−2.52) | (−2.23) | (−8.40) | (−2.63) | (−2.37) | (−8.83) | |||||||||
\(Theme\) | −0.0433 | −0.0433*** | −0.0434* | −0.0476 | −0.0476*** | −0.0464* | ||||||||
(−1.13) | (−11.11) | (−1.75) | (−1.23) | (−11.06) | (−1.88) | |||||||||
\(wikiNumber\) | −0.0013*** | −0.0013*** | −0.0013*** | −0.0013*** | −0.0013*** | −0.0013*** | ||||||||
(−7.19) | (−5.19) | (−19.22) | (−6.91) | (−4.99) | (−18.42) | |||||||||
\({lnT}^{num}\) | 0.0210*** | 0.0210*** | 0.0209*** | 0.0204*** | 0.0243*** | 0.0205*** | 0.0243*** | 0.0211*** | 0.0211*** | 0.0210*** | 0.0204*** | 0.0242*** | 0.0206*** | 0.0243*** |
(26.29) | (21.71) | (70.19) | (54.60) | (68.41) | (54.99) | (68.63) | (26.81) | (22.08) | (70.49) | (54.66) | (68.31) | (55.03) | (68.54) | |
\(ETF\) | −0.1090*** | −0.1090*** | −0.1090*** | −0.0528*** | −0.0879*** | −0.0535*** | −0.0885*** | −0.1093*** | −0.1093*** | −0.1092*** | −0.0528*** | −0.0878*** | −0.0534*** | −0.0885*** |
(−43.09) | (−35.16) | (−135.08) | (−49.77) | (−93.64) | (−50.46) | (−94.28) | (−42.83) | (−35.09) | (−135.11) | (−49.70) | (−93.57) | (−50.40) | (−94.20) | |
\(ETP\) | −0.0326*** | −0.0326*** | −0.0337*** | −0.0254*** | −0.0333*** | −0.0263*** | −0.0345*** | −0.0332*** | −0.0332*** | −0.0343*** | −0.0255*** | −0.0337*** | −0.0264*** | −0.0349*** |
(−10.44) | (−8.96) | (−17.15) | (−12.33) | (−16.32) | (−12.77) | (−16.89) | (−10.54) | (−9.07) | (−17.46) | (−12.40) | (−16.55) | (−12.84) | (−17.09) | |
\(Derivative\) | −0.1456*** | −0.1456*** | −0.1464*** | −0.0836*** | −0.1197*** | −0.0835*** | −0.1198*** | −0.1449*** | −0.1449*** | −0.1457*** | −0.0838*** | −0.1197*** | −0.0837*** | −0.1198*** |
(−46.99) | (−39.37) | (−123.87) | (−54.17) | (−87.70) | (−54.23) | (−87.66) | (−46.70) | (−39.17) | (−123.41) | (−54.31) | (−87.73) | (−54.36) | (−87.68) | |
\(HWM\) | 0.0038 | 0.0038 | 0.0068*** | −0.0025*** | −0.0002 | −0.0018** | 0.0013* | 0.0029 | 0.0029 | 0.0058*** | −0.0028*** | −0.0008 | −0.0022*** | 0.0005 |
(1.51) | (1.50) | (7.95) | (−3.83) | (−0.24) | (−2.40) | (1.66) | (1.09) | (1.08) | (6.87) | (−4.37) | (−1.21) | (−2.99) | (0.64) | |
\(Age\) | 0.0001 | 0.0001 | 0.0000 | 0.0002*** | 0.0002*** | 0.0003*** | 0.0000 | 0.0000 | −0.0001*** | 0.0001*** | 0.0002*** | 0.0002*** | ||
(0.79) | (0.71) | (0.30) | (6.69) | (8.07) | (5.72) | (−0.36) | (−0.33) | (−3.86) | (6.15) | (6.89) | (4.69) | |||
\({R}^{2}\) | 0.1871 | 0.1871 | 0.1918 | 0.4770 | 0.3616 | 0.4808 | 0.3655 | 0.1885 | 0.1885 | 0.1933 | 0.4769 | 0.3617 | 0.4807 | 0.3657 |
Panel C: Volume lottery | ||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
(1) | (2) | (3) | (4) | (5) | (6) | (7) | (8) | (9) | (10) | (11) | (12) | (13) | (14) | |
\(\alpha\) | 0.0603*** | 0.0603*** | 0.0642*** | 0.0411*** | 0.0457*** | 0.0435*** | 0.0487*** | 0.0650*** | 0.0650*** | 0.0682*** | 0.0426*** | 0.0483*** | 0.0449*** | 0.0511*** |
(17.07) | (15.52) | (53.82) | (27.85) | (31.06) | (30.73) | (31.74) | (18.56) | (16.75) | (57.42) | (28.73) | (32.73) | (31.56) | (33.24) | |
\(RR\) | −0.0098*** | −0.0098*** | −0.0095*** | −0.0008*** | −0.0032*** | −0.0008*** | −0.0032*** | −0.0116*** | −0.0116*** | −0.0112*** | −0.0014*** | −0.0042*** | −0.0014*** | −0.0041*** |
(−13.40) | (−12.30) | (−34.94) | (−2.82) | (−11.66) | (−2.86) | (−11.52) | (−14.56) | (−13.17) | (−40.40) | (−4.58) | (−14.63) | (−4.56) | (−14.37) | |
\({RR}^{2}\) | 0.0009*** | 0.0009*** | 0.0009*** | 0.0001*** | 0.0003*** | 0.0001*** | 0.0003*** | 0.0010*** | 0.0010*** | 0.0010*** | 0.0001*** | 0.0004*** | 0.0001*** | 0.0004*** |
(14.20) | (13.05) | (37.58) | (4.21) | (13.26) | (4.26) | (13.20) | (15.04) | (13.71) | (41.99) | (5.42) | (15.32) | (5.43) | (15.16) | |
\(Leverage\) | 0.0020* | 0.0020 | 0.0023*** | −0.0017** | −0.0019** | 0.0015 | 0.0015 | 0.0019*** | −0.0020*** | −0.0021*** | ||||
(1.73) | (1.65) | (4.38) | (−2.38) | (−2.55) | (1.36) | (1.28) | (3.60) | (−2.79) | (−2.92) | |||||
\(RealMoney\) | 0.0077*** | 0.0077*** | 0.0076*** | 0.0054*** | 0.0056*** | 0.0075*** | 0.0075*** | 0.0073*** | 0.0052*** | 0.0053*** | ||||
(3.25) | (2.86) | (9.50) | (3.87) | (4.00) | (3.15) | (2.78) | (9.13) | (3.72) | (3.84) | |||||
\(Investable\) | −0.0017* | −0.0017 | −0.0002 | 0.0004 | 0.0015** | −0.0017* | −0.0017 | −0.0004 | 0.0003 | 0.0014* | ||||
(−1.81) | (−1.57) | (−0.57) | (0.61) | (2.06) | (−1.88) | (−1.64) | (−0.94) | (0.46) | (1.87) | |||||
\(Closing\) | −0.0100* | −0.0100* | −0.0098*** | −0.0105*** | −0.0095** | −0.0103* | −0.0103* | −0.0103*** | −0.0107*** | −0.0098** | ||||
(−1.86) | (−1.79) | (−3.28) | (−2.61) | (−2.38) | (−1.95) | (−1.87) | (−3.43) | (−2.66) | (−2.44) | |||||
\(Closed\) | −0.0061*** | −0.0061*** | −0.0034*** | −0.0023*** | −0.0007 | −0.0061*** | −0.0061*** | −0.0035*** | −0.0024*** | −0.0009 | ||||
(−5.24) | (−4.63) | (−5.27) | (−2.74) | (−0.83) | (−5.19) | (−4.59) | (−5.47) | (−2.83) | (−0.97) | |||||
\(Fee\) | 0.0116** | 0.0116* | 0.0129*** | 0.0225*** | 0.0219*** | 0.0107* | 0.0107 | 0.0121*** | 0.0219*** | 0.0213*** | ||||
(2.03) | (1.71) | (5.07) | (5.06) | (4.93) | (1.89) | (1.60) | (4.74) | (4.92) | (4.79) | |||||
\(Media\) | −0.0135*** | −0.0135** | −0.0133*** | −0.0128*** | −0.0128** | −0.0126*** | ||||||||
(−3.28) | (−2.47) | (−5.94) | (−3.14) | (−2.37) | (−5.61) | |||||||||
\(Manager\) | −0.0102*** | −0.0102** | −0.0094*** | −0.0097** | −0.0097** | −0.0089*** | ||||||||
(−2.71) | (−2.34) | (−5.40) | (−2.60) | (−2.23) | (−5.12) | |||||||||
\(Theme\) | 0.0391 | 0.0391*** | 0.0389*** | 0.0401 | 0.0401*** | 0.0394*** | ||||||||
(1.08) | (18.82) | (3.16) | (1.11) | (23.49) | (3.21) | |||||||||
\(wikiNumber\) | 0.0000 | 0.0000 | 0.0000 | 0.0000 | 0.0000 | 0.0000 | ||||||||
(0.33) | (0.21) | (0.60) | (0.06) | (0.04) | (0.00) | |||||||||
\({lnT}^{vol}\) | −0.0002 | −0.0002 | −0.0005*** | −0.0007*** | −0.0006*** | −0.0008*** | −0.0007*** | −0.0001 | −0.0001 | −0.0005*** | −0.0007*** | −0.0006*** | −0.0008*** | −0.0007*** |
(−0.86) | (−0.72) | (−5.55) | (−5.91) | (−6.07) | (−6.13) | (−6.88) | (−0.82) | (−0.68) | (−5.30) | (−5.87) | (−5.78) | (−6.11) | (−6.61) | |
\(ETF\) | −0.0189*** | −0.0189*** | −0.0179*** | −0.0105*** | −0.0137*** | −0.0106*** | −0.0136*** | −0.0188*** | −0.0188*** | −0.0178*** | −0.0105*** | −0.0137*** | −0.0106*** | −0.0136*** |
(−24.71) | (−21.44) | (−44.96) | (−18.76) | (−28.78) | (−18.95) | (−28.45) | (−24.32) | (−21.14) | (−44.62) | (−18.78) | (−28.81) | (−18.97) | (−28.48) | |
\(ETP\) | −0.0024** | −0.0024* | −0.0011 | −0.0076*** | −0.0066*** | −0.0061*** | −0.0050*** | −0.0024** | −0.0024* | −0.0011 | −0.0076*** | −0.0065*** | −0.0061*** | −0.0049*** |
(−2.16) | (−1.95) | (−1.16) | (−7.01) | (−6.37) | (−5.58) | (−4.80) | (−2.16) | (−1.95) | (−1.13) | (−7.00) | (−6.33) | (−5.57) | (−4.76) | |
\(Derivative\) | −0.0278*** | −0.0278*** | −0.0276*** | −0.0166*** | −0.0212*** | −0.0156*** | −0.0206*** | −0.0282*** | −0.0282*** | −0.0280*** | −0.0166*** | −0.0213*** | −0.0156*** | −0.0207*** |
(−21.03) | (−19.57) | (−48.08) | (−20.48) | (−30.93) | (−19.22) | (−29.99) | (−21.10) | (−19.61) | (−48.71) | (−20.50) | (−31.09) | (−19.25) | (−30.15) | |
\(HWM\) | −0.0008 | −0.0008 | −0.0017*** | 0.0015*** | 0.0007** | 0.0014*** | 0.0003 | −0.0001 | −0.0001 | −0.0010** | 0.0018*** | 0.0012*** | 0.0018*** | 0.0008** |
(−0.63) | (−0.63) | (−3.92) | (4.34) | (1.99) | (3.36) | (0.70) | (−0.09) | (−0.09) | (−2.34) | (5.38) | (3.36) | (4.42) | (2.08) | |
\(Age\) | 0.0000 | 0.0000 | −0.0001*** | 0.0001*** | 0.0001*** | −0.0001*** | 0.0000 | 0.0000 | −0.0001*** | 0.0001*** | 0.0001*** | −0.0001** | ||
(0.12) | (0.11) | (−10.27) | (8.92) | (6.14) | (−2.92) | (0.89) | (0.81) | (−7.79) | (9.18) | (6.72) | (−2.40) | |||
\({R}^{2}\) | 0.0266 | 0.0266 | 0.0320 | 0.2873 | 0.1996 | 0.2900 | 0.2026 | 0.0279 | 0.0279 | 0.0330 | 0.2872 | 0.1996 | 0.2900 | 0.2027 |
Panel D: Volume nonlottery | ||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
(1) | (2) | (3) | (4) | (5) | (6) | (7) | (8) | (9) | (10) | (11) | (12) | (13) | (14) | |
\(\alpha\) | 0.1240*** | 0.1240*** | 0.1239*** | 0.0922*** | 0.1016*** | 0.0935*** | 0.0933*** | 0.1183*** | 0.1183*** | 0.1184*** | 0.0937*** | 0.0984*** | 0.0942*** | 0.0901*** |
(18.68) | (16.44) | (49.64) | (31.43) | (33.57) | (33.31) | (29.57) | (18.56) | (16.11) | (47.68) | (31.85) | (32.42) | (33.35) | (28.56) | |
\(RR\) | 0.0390*** | 0.0390*** | 0.0388*** | 0.0075*** | 0.0188*** | 0.0075*** | 0.0187*** | 0.0415*** | 0.0415*** | 0.0415*** | 0.0069*** | 0.0203*** | 0.0071*** | 0.0203*** |
(30.01) | (27.47) | (67.90) | (13.43) | (33.10) | (13.42) | (32.97) | (31.11) | (27.81) | (71.75) | (11.58) | (34.31) | (11.99) | (34.43) | |
\({RR}^{2}\) | −0.0035*** | −0.0035*** | −0.0035*** | −0.0007*** | −0.0017*** | −0.0007*** | −0.0017*** | −0.0037*** | −0.0037*** | −0.0037*** | −0.0007*** | −0.0018*** | −0.0007*** | −0.0018*** |
(−30.37) | (−27.70) | (−70.49) | (−15.11) | (−34.78) | (−15.10) | (−34.73) | (−28.75) | (−26.00) | (−73.54) | (−13.08) | (−35.23) | (−13.40) | (−35.37) | |
\(Leverage\) | −0.0114*** | −0.0114*** | −0.0116*** | −0.0322*** | −0.0316*** | −0.0103*** | −0.0103*** | −0.0105*** | −0.0313*** | −0.0307*** | ||||
(−4.11) | (−3.62) | (−10.55) | (−21.39) | (−21.01) | (−3.72) | (−3.28) | (−9.51) | (−20.75) | (−20.39) | |||||
\(RealMoney\) | −0.0041 | −0.0041 | −0.0045*** | −0.0076*** | −0.0082*** | −0.0030 | −0.0030 | −0.0035** | −0.0068** | −0.0073** | ||||
(−0.76) | (−0.71) | (−2.68) | (−2.67) | (−2.87) | (−0.56) | (−0.53) | (−2.08) | (−2.38) | (−2.56) | |||||
\(Investable\) | 0.0031 | 0.0031 | 0.0029*** | 0.0097*** | 0.0076*** | 0.0032 | 0.0032 | 0.0034*** | 0.0101*** | 0.0082*** | ||||
(1.31) | (1.16) | (3.36) | (6.61) | (5.11) | (1.38) | (1.23) | (3.93) | (6.89) | (5.50) | |||||
\(Closing\) | −0.0124 | −0.0124 | −0.0124** | −0.0138* | −0.0158* | −0.0115 | −0.0115 | −0.0112* | −0.0132 | −0.0149* | ||||
(−0.87) | (−0.81) | (−1.97) | (−1.68) | (−1.91) | (−0.81) | (−0.76) | (−1.79) | (−1.60) | (−1.81) | |||||
\(Closed\) | −0.0058* | −0.0058 | −0.0058*** | −0.0028 | −0.0064*** | −0.0061* | −0.0061 | −0.0055*** | −0.0026 | −0.0059*** | ||||
(−1.74) | (−1.55) | (−4.29) | (−1.57) | (−3.51) | (−1.81) | (−1.62) | (−4.05) | (−1.46) | (−3.26) | |||||
\(Fee\) | −0.1697*** | −0.1697*** | −0.1689*** | −0.0775*** | −0.0770*** | −0.1691*** | −0.1691*** | −0.1674*** | −0.0757*** | −0.0750*** | ||||
(−11.52) | (−9.51) | (−31.65) | (−8.49) | (−8.45) | (−11.53) | (−9.51) | (−31.37) | (−8.28) | (−8.23) | |||||
\(Media\) | 0.0297** | 0.0297** | 0.0287*** | 0.0274** | 0.0274* | 0.0261*** | ||||||||
(2.14) | (2.09) | (6.12) | (2.01) | (1.94) | (5.59) | |||||||||
\(Manager\) | −0.0459*** | −0.0459*** | −0.0463*** | −0.0472*** | −0.0472*** | −0.0477*** | ||||||||
(−4.00) | (−3.75) | (−12.67) | (−4.10) | (−3.89) | (−13.06) | |||||||||
\(Theme\) | −0.0690* | −0.0690*** | −0.0695*** | −0.0735** | −0.0735*** | −0.0727*** | ||||||||
(−1.90) | (−15.50) | (−2.70) | (−2.03) | (−14.80) | (−2.83) | |||||||||
\(wikiNumber\) | −0.0012*** | −0.0012*** | −0.0012*** | −0.0011*** | −0.0011*** | −0.0011*** | ||||||||
(−6.37) | (−4.62) | (−16.46) | (−6.08) | (−4.40) | (−15.62) | |||||||||
\({lnT}^{vol}\) | 0.0060*** | 0.0060*** | 0.0060*** | 0.0099*** | 0.0096*** | 0.0100*** | 0.0098*** | 0.0059*** | 0.0059*** | 0.0058*** | 0.0099*** | 0.0094*** | 0.0100*** | 0.0097*** |
(13.84) | (11.65) | (33.62) | (39.32) | (43.65) | (39.78) | (44.57) | (13.65) | (11.45) | (32.80) | (39.18) | (42.91) | (39.61) | (43.79) | |
\(ETF\) | −0.1118*** | −0.1118*** | −0.1123*** | −0.0582*** | −0.0922*** | −0.0588*** | −0.0934*** | −0.1121*** | −0.1121*** | −0.1123*** | −0.0581*** | −0.0920*** | −0.0587*** | −0.0932*** |
(−41.90) | (−33.84) | (−134.55) | (−52.31) | (−94.22) | (−52.94) | (−95.26) | (−41.46) | (−33.67) | (−134.35) | (−52.20) | (−94.03) | (−52.83) | (−95.05) | |
\(ETP\) | −0.0228*** | −0.0228*** | −0.0236*** | −0.0217*** | −0.0263*** | −0.0226*** | −0.0277*** | −0.0234*** | −0.0234*** | −0.0242*** | −0.0218*** | −0.0267*** | −0.0227*** | −0.0281*** |
(−6.55) | (−5.56) | (−11.61) | (−10.04) | (−12.36) | (−10.43) | (−13.02) | (−6.68) | (−5.68) | (−11.90) | (−10.10) | (−12.56) | (−10.49) | (−13.20) | |
\(Derivative\) | −0.1320*** | −0.1320*** | −0.1324*** | −0.0727*** | −0.1066*** | −0.0726*** | −0.1062*** | −0.1312*** | −0.1312*** | −0.1316*** | −0.0729*** | −0.1066*** | −0.0728*** | −0.1062*** |
(−42.45) | (−34.97) | (−110.05) | (−45.18) | (−75.62) | (−45.16) | (−75.32) | (−41.99) | (−34.66) | (−109.46) | (−45.31) | (−75.60) | (−45.27) | (−75.29) | |
\(HWM\) | 0.0043* | 0.0043* | 0.0071*** | −0.0018*** | 0.0010 | −0.0014* | 0.0022*** | 0.0035 | 0.0035 | 0.0063*** | −0.0021*** | 0.0003 | −0.0018** | 0.0014* |
(1.68) | (1.67) | (8.04) | (−2.64) | (1.34) | (−1.74) | (2.65) | (1.31) | (1.31) | (7.21) | (−3.12) | (0.46) | (−2.27) | (1.73) | |
\(Age\) | 0.0001* | 0.0001 | 0.0001*** | 0.0001*** | 0.0002*** | 0.0005*** | 0.0000 | 0.0000 | 0.0000 | 0.0001*** | 0.0001*** | 0.0005*** | ||
(1.66) | (1.50) | (3.98) | (4.98) | (6.72) | (10.58) | (0.42) | (0.38) | (−0.21) | (4.38) | (5.45) | (9.46) | |||
\({R}^{2}\) | 0.1732 | 0.1732 | 0.1775 | 0.4540 | 0.3433 | 0.4576 | 0.3472 | 0.1743 | 0.1743 | 0.1788 | 0.4539 | 0.3433 | 0.4574 | 0.3472 |
4.3 Transactions nonlottery-like stocks
4.4 Net lottery flow
Panel A: Number net lottery flow | ||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
(1) | (2) | (3) | (4) | (5) | (6) | (7) | (8) | (9) | (10) | (11) | (12) | (13) | (14) | |
\(\alpha\) | -4.5640*** | -4.5640*** | -4.2017*** | 1.0087*** | -1.5981*** | 3.3079*** | −0.5286*** | -4.0821*** | -4.0821*** | -3.7665*** | 1.2987*** | -1.2855*** | 3.5761*** | −0.2279 |
(−4.35) | (−3.20) | (−26.90) | (10.04) | (−8.61) | (37.89) | (−2.67) | (−3.94) | (−2.86) | (−23.85) | (12.59) | (−6.86) | (39.76) | (−1.14) | |
\(RR\) | −0.1035*** | −0.1035*** | −0.0938*** | −0.0387*** | −0.0637*** | −0.0381*** | −0.0621*** | −0.1930*** | −0.1930*** | −0.1797*** | −0.0965*** | −0.1254*** | −0.0944*** | −0.1238*** |
(−3.11) | (−2.76) | (−6.27) | (−4.51) | (−5.44) | (−4.40) | (−5.24) | (−3.16) | (−2.90) | (−12.02) | (−10.23) | (−10.12) | (−9.91) | (−9.89) | |
\(Leverage\) | 0.5396 | 0.5396 | 0.5359*** | -1.6622*** | -1.7998*** | 0.5243 | 0.5243 | 0.5230*** | -1.6725*** | -1.8090*** | ||||
(1.27) | (1.17) | (4.17) | (−11.09) | (−11.99) | (1.23) | (1.14) | (4.07) | (−11.16) | (−12.06) | |||||
\(RealMoney\) | 0.0872 | 0.0872 | 0.0636 | 4.5005*** | 4.5585*** | 0.1850 | 0.1850 | 0.1530 | 4.5623*** | 4.6184*** | ||||
(0.05) | (0.04) | (0.33) | (15.74) | (15.96) | (0.10) | (0.09) | (0.78) | (15.96) | (16.16) | |||||
\(Investable\) | 0.0020 | 0.0020 | 0.3219*** | 1.5727*** | 2.0198*** | 0.0180 | 0.0180 | 0.3354*** | 1.5921*** | 2.0391*** | ||||
(0.01) | (0.00) | (3.17) | (10.65) | (13.49) | (0.05) | (0.04) | (3.30) | (10.79) | (13.62) | |||||
\(Closing\) | -2.9027** | -2.9027* | -2.8246*** | 0.8062 | 1.4067* | -2.7708* | -2.7708* | -2.7028*** | 0.7995 | 1.3995* | ||||
(−2.04) | (−1.86) | (−3.86) | (0.98) | (1.71) | (−1.95) | (−1.78) | (−3.70) | (0.97) | (1.70) | |||||
\(Closed\) | -2.1418*** | -2.1418*** | -1.5415*** | −0.0237 | 0.7035*** | -2.1782*** | -2.1782*** | -1.5769*** | −0.0641 | 0.6660*** | ||||
(−3.38) | (−2.74) | (−9.70) | (−0.13) | (3.86) | (−3.43) | (−2.78) | (−9.93) | (−0.36) | (3.66) | |||||
\(Fee\) | −0.1397 | −0.1397 | 0.2659 | 2.0995** | 2.0850** | −0.2781 | −0.2781 | 0.1422 | 2.0198** | 2.0115** | ||||
(−0.04) | (−0.03) | (0.43) | (2.30) | (2.29) | (−0.08) | (−0.06) | (0.23) | (2.22) | (2.21) | |||||
\(Media\) | -3.7821 | -3.7821 | -3.8566*** | -3.7576 | -3.7576 | -3.8354*** | ||||||||
(−1.14) | (−0.97) | (−7.05) | (−1.13) | (−0.97) | (−7.01) | |||||||||
\(Manager\) | -1.2542** | -1.2542* | -1.3173*** | -1.2691** | -1.2691* | -1.3330*** | ||||||||
(−2.29) | (−1.66) | (−3.09) | (−2.31) | (−1.70) | (−3.12) | |||||||||
\(Theme\) | -3.3909*** | -3.3909** | -2.8959 | -3.1293*** | -3.1293** | -2.6392 | ||||||||
(−3.31) | (−2.53) | (−0.96) | (−3.09) | (−2.37) | (−0.88) | |||||||||
\(wikiNumber\) | 0.1952*** | 0.1952** | 0.1913*** | 0.1957*** | 0.1957** | 0.1918*** | ||||||||
(3.27) | (2.18) | (23.10) | (3.28) | (2.19) | (23.16) | |||||||||
\({lnT}^{num}\) | 2.7015*** | 2.7015*** | 2.6709*** | 0.0557* | 0.9408*** | 0.0421 | 0.9427*** | 2.7113*** | 2.7113*** | 2.6796*** | 0.0689** | 0.9562*** | 0.0543* | 0.9571*** |
(6.55) | (5.37) | (73.88) | (1.83) | (25.45) | (1.38) | (25.45) | (6.56) | (5.38) | (74.12) | (2.26) | (25.84) | (1.78) | (25.82) | |
\(ETF\) | 0.0637 | 0.0637 | 0.2838*** | −0.0195 | −0.3403*** | −0.0637 | −0.2671*** | −0.0087 | −0.0087 | 0.2156** | −0.0241 | −0.3627*** | −0.0677 | −0.2886*** |
(0.14) | (0.11) | (2.91) | (−0.23) | (−3.48) | (−0.74) | (−2.72) | (−0.02) | (−0.02) | (2.20) | (−0.28) | (−3.71) | (−0.78) | (−2.94) | |
\(ETP\) | 0.2359 | 0.2359 | 0.3975 | -1.7177*** | -1.4457*** | -1.4610*** | -1.1645*** | 0.1999 | 0.1999 | 0.3622 | -1.7183*** | -1.4541*** | -1.4625*** | -1.1741*** |
(0.34) | (0.28) | (1.67) | (−10.25) | (−6.80) | (−8.69) | (−5.46) | (0.29) | (0.24) | (1.52) | (−10.26) | (−6.84) | (−8.70) | (−5.51) | |
\(Derivative\) | -2.6168*** | -2.6168*** | -2.7520*** | 0.1732 | −0.4819*** | 0.2515** | −0.5855*** | -2.6339*** | -2.6339*** | -2.7684*** | 0.1787 | −0.4815*** | 0.2561*** | −0.5862*** |
(−4.76) | (−3.98) | (−19.29) | (1.38) | (−3.39) | (2.00) | (−4.11) | (−4.77) | (−3.98) | (−19.41) | (1.42) | (−3.39) | (2.04) | (−4.11) | |
\(HWM\) | −0.8213*** | −0.8213*** | −0.8903*** | −0.1092** | −0.2143*** | −0.0546 | −0.1771* | −0.6806*** | −0.6806*** | −0.7112*** | −0.0553 | −0.1484** | 0.0185 | −0.0847 |
(−3.48) | (−3.52) | (−8.65) | (−2.05) | (−2.97) | (−0.88) | (−2.13) | (−2.80) | (−2.81) | (−6.94) | (−1.05) | (−2.08) | (0.30) | (−1.03) | |
\(Age\) | 0.0954*** | 0.0954*** | 0.0648*** | 0.1136*** | 0.1167*** | 0.0475*** | 0.0952*** | 0.0952*** | 0.0649*** | 0.1133*** | 0.1164*** | 0.0473*** | ||
(5.69) | (4.77) | (21.48) | (59.67) | (46.88) | (9.61) | (5.70) | (4.78) | (21.53) | (59.50) | (46.78) | (9.57) | |||
\({R}^{2}\) | 0.0315 | 0.0315 | 0.0336 | 0.7206 | 0.4384 | 0.7212 | 0.4394 | 0.0319 | 0.0319 | 0.0340 | 0.7207 | 0.4385 | 0.7213 | 0.4395 |
Panel B: Volume net lottery flow | ||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
(1) | (2) | (3) | (4) | (5) | (6) | (7) | (8) | (9) | (10) | (11) | (12) | (13) | (14) | |
\(\alpha\) | 1.8221*** | 1.8221*** | 1.9495*** | 1.2794*** | 1.3006*** | 1.0103*** | 1.3396*** | 1.8243*** | 1.8243*** | 1.9494*** | 1.2857*** | 1.3022*** | 1.0162*** | 1.3414*** |
(17.73) | (16.62) | (60.12) | (42.09) | (34.13) | (34.84) | (33.36) | (18.11) | (16.92) | (60.36) | (42.29) | (34.22) | (35.07) | (33.44) | |
\(RR\) | −0.0008 | −0.0008 | −0.0014 | −0.0043*** | −0.0032** | −0.0052*** | −0.0040** | −0.0014 | −0.0014 | −0.0014 | −0.0065*** | −0.0040** | −0.0075*** | −0.0049*** |
(−0.27) | (−0.27) | (−0.71) | (−3.44) | (−2.00) | (−4.08) | (−2.42) | (−0.38) | (−0.37) | (−0.73) | (−4.72) | (−2.34) | (−5.39) | (−2.84) | |
\(Leverage\) | 0.0035 | 0.0035 | −0.0012 | −0.0897*** | −0.0916*** | 0.0034 | 0.0034 | −0.0013 | −0.0899*** | −0.0919*** | ||||
(0.06) | (0.06) | (−0.07) | (−4.31) | (−4.40) | (0.06) | (0.06) | (−0.07) | (−4.32) | (−4.41) | |||||
\(RealMoney\) | 0.3413*** | 0.3413*** | 0.3430*** | 0.1216*** | 0.1247*** | 0.3421*** | 0.3421*** | 0.3436*** | 0.1235*** | 0.1270*** | ||||
(3.17) | (3.02) | (13.38) | (3.07) | (3.15) | (3.18) | (3.03) | (13.40) | (3.12) | (3.21) | |||||
\(Investable\) | −0.1800*** | −0.1800*** | −0.1448*** | −0.1307*** | −0.1214*** | −0.1799*** | −0.1799*** | −0.1447*** | −0.1300*** | −0.1206*** | ||||
(−3.72) | (−3.63) | (−10.99) | (−6.42) | (−5.87) | (−3.72) | (−3.63) | (−10.98) | (−6.39) | (−5.83) | |||||
\(Closing\) | −0.0103 | −0.0103 | −0.0036 | −0.1979* | −0.1844 | −0.0094 | −0.0094 | −0.0028 | −0.1979* | −0.1846 | ||||
(−0.02) | (−0.02) | (−0.04) | (−1.73) | (−1.61) | (−0.02) | (−0.02) | (−0.03) | (−1.73) | (−1.61) | |||||
\(Closed\) | −0.2579*** | −0.2579*** | −0.1831*** | −0.1824*** | −0.1583*** | −0.2581*** | −0.2581*** | −0.1833*** | −0.1833*** | −0.1595*** | ||||
(−4.13) | (−4.03) | (−8.80) | (−7.46) | (−6.27) | (−4.13) | (−4.02) | (−8.81) | (−7.50) | (−6.31) | |||||
\(Fee\) | −0.5521* | −0.5521* | −0.4264*** | 0.5731*** | 0.5845*** | −0.5533* | −0.5533* | −0.4273*** | 0.5706*** | 0.5816*** | ||||
(−1.86) | (−1.67) | (−5.23) | (4.53) | (4.62) | (−1.86) | (−1.68) | (−5.24) | (4.51) | (4.60) | |||||
\(Media\) | 0.0993 | 0.0993 | 0.0897 | 0.0995 | 0.0995 | 0.0898 | ||||||||
(0.38) | (0.57) | (1.25) | (0.38) | (0.57) | (1.25) | |||||||||
\(Manager\) | 0.2937 | 0.2937 | 0.2825*** | 0.2934 | 0.2934 | 0.2823*** | ||||||||
(1.15) | (1.01) | (5.05) | (1.15) | (1.01) | (5.04) | |||||||||
\(Theme\) | 0.9473 | 0.9473*** | 0.9733** | 0.9491 | 0.9491*** | 0.9753** | ||||||||
(1.06) | (15.67) | (2.47) | (1.06) | (15.84) | (2.47) | |||||||||
\(wikiNumber\) | −0.0084** | −0.0084** | −0.0085*** | −0.0084** | −0.0084** | −0.0085*** | ||||||||
(−2.59) | (−2.31) | (−7.88) | (−2.59) | (−2.31) | (−7.88) | |||||||||
\({lnT}^{vol}\) | −0.0328*** | −0.0328*** | −0.0436*** | −0.0223*** | −0.0116*** | −0.0218*** | −0.0128*** | −0.0327*** | −0.0327*** | −0.0435*** | −0.0217*** | −0.0113*** | −0.0210*** | −0.0123*** |
(−3.93) | (−3.64) | (−16.04) | (−7.90) | (−3.83) | (−7.69) | (−4.18) | (−3.90) | (−3.62) | (−15.98) | (−7.64) | (−3.70) | (−7.40) | (−4.03) | |
\(ETF\) | −0.3721*** | −0.3721*** | −0.3276*** | −0.0093 | −0.1568*** | −0.0057 | −0.1493*** | −0.3727*** | −0.3727*** | −0.3280*** | −0.0097 | −0.1574*** | −0.0061 | −0.1502*** |
(−10.88) | (−10.06) | (−25.70) | (−0.74) | (−11.57) | (−0.45) | (−10.97) | (−10.95) | (−10.12) | (−25.66) | (−0.77) | (−11.62) | (−0.49) | (−11.03) | |
\(ETP\) | −0.0132 | −0.0132 | −0.0257 | 0.0183 | 0.0191 | 0.0050 | 0.0088 | −0.0134 | −0.0134 | −0.0259 | 0.0183 | 0.0189 | 0.0049 | 0.0085 |
(−0.25) | (−0.24) | (−0.83) | (0.75) | (0.65) | (0.20) | (0.30) | (−0.25) | (−0.24) | (−0.83) | (0.75) | (0.64) | (0.20) | (0.29) | |
\(Derivative\) | −0.3610*** | −0.3610*** | −0.3841*** | −0.0459** | −0.2650*** | −0.0431** | −0.2685*** | −0.3611*** | −0.3611*** | −0.3842*** | −0.0454** | −0.2649*** | −0.0426** | −0.2684*** |
(−7.50) | (−7.19) | (−20.94) | (−2.52) | (−13.60) | (−2.37) | (−13.74) | (−7.51) | (−7.20) | (−20.94) | (−2.50) | (−13.59) | (−2.34) | (−13.73) | |
\(HWM\) | 0.0714*** | 0.0714*** | 0.0984*** | 0.0600*** | 0.0669*** | 0.0756*** | 0.0820*** | 0.0723*** | 0.0723*** | 0.0984*** | 0.0608*** | 0.0669*** | 0.0767*** | 0.0824*** |
(3.40) | (3.36) | (7.28) | (7.73) | (6.70) | (8.36) | (7.09) | (3.42) | (3.38) | (7.32) | (7.92) | (6.77) | (8.60) | (7.20) | |
\(Age\) | −0.0157*** | −0.0157*** | −0.0193*** | −0.0128*** | −0.0125*** | −0.0144*** | −0.0157*** | −0.0157*** | −0.0193*** | −0.0128*** | −0.0125*** | −0.0144*** | ||
(−12.99) | (−12.26) | (−47.56) | (−45.91) | (−36.00) | (−20.79) | (−12.99) | (−12.27) | (−47.56) | (−46.00) | (−36.03) | (−20.79) | |||
\({R}^{2}\) | 0.0178 | 0.0178 | 0.0202 | 0.6452 | 0.3601 | 0.6456 | 0.3606 | 0.0178 | 0.0178 | 0.0202 | 0.6452 | 0.3601 | 0.6457 | 0.3606 |