1 Introduction
2 Data and descriptive statistics
2.1 Data sources and description
Panel A: Investext search criteria | ||
Asset class: | All | |
Dates: | Custom, 01/01/01 to 12/31/17 | |
Keywords: | “Cost of equity” in Text | |
Report type: | Company | |
Geography: | United States (or Not United States) | |
Contributor: | Non-broker Research removed/excluded | |
Panel B: Identification of usable analyst reports containing the text “cost of equity,” target prices, sufficient stock return data, and basic annual accounting data | ||
Geography | ||
US | International | |
Analyst reports in Investext that contain “cost of equity” | 80,081 | 350,118 |
- Reports without sufficient stock return data | −13,772 | −116,443 |
- Reports without basic annual accounting data | −7,938 | −12,257 |
- Reports where cost of equity is not able to be identifieda | −13,114 | −93,864 |
- Reports where target price is not able to be identifiedb | −35,476 | −63,269 |
= Number of usable analyst-firm-report observations | 9,781 | 64,285 |
Panel A: Number of analyst-firm-report observations by country (top 15 of 96) and by year | ||||
Country | # obs | US | International | |
US | 9,781 | Year | # obs | # obs |
Australia | 6,878 | 2001 | 110 | 0 |
China | 5,647 | 2002 | 152 | 356 |
United Kingdom | 4,624 | 2003 | 225 | 944 |
Taiwan | 4,406 | 2004 | 514 | 1,170 |
Germany | 3,540 | 2005 | 525 | 1,719 |
Singapore | 2,695 | 2006 | 227 | 1,991 |
Thailand | 2,580 | 2007 | 488 | 2,827 |
Cayman Islands | 2,511 | 2008 | 420 | 3,750 |
India | 2,467 | 2009 | 590 | 4,907 |
Hong Kong | 2,283 | 2010 | 707 | 5,205 |
Canada | 1,977 | 2011 | 741 | 4,705 |
Switzerland | 1,931 | 2012 | 719 | 4,232 |
Mexico | 1,758 | 2013 | 848 | 4,337 |
Malaysia | 1,732 | 2014 | 838 | 5,020 |
2015 | 843 | 5,865 | ||
2016 | 1,017 | 8,557 | ||
2017 | 817 | 8,700 |
Panel B: Number of observations by issuer (by geography, top 10 out of 812 issuers) | ||||
US | International | |||
Issuer | # obs | Issuer | # obs | |
Morgan Stanley | 1,583 | Morgan Stanley | 12,834 | |
Credit Suisse | 946 | Deutsche Bank | 6,801 | |
JP Morgan | 763 | HSBC Global Research | 6,523 | |
Barclays | 672 | JP Morgan | 6,389 | |
Singular Research | 640 | UBS | 5,462 | |
Piper Jaffray | 507 | Credit Suisse | 4,005 | |
Citi | 467 | Macquarie | 1,979 | |
Jefferies | 426 | Raiffeisen Centro Bank | 1,210 | |
Deutsche Bank | 382 | ESN | 1,005 | |
UBS | 276 | Unicredit Research | 969 |
2.2 Key variables
2.3 Descriptive statistics
3 Empirical analyses
3.1 Tests of our main hypothesis
Independent variables | Predicted coef | Dependent variable FRET is 1-year-ahead realized stock return | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
US analyst models | International analyst models | ||||||
(1) | (2) | (3) | (4) | (5) | (6) | ||
MIS | 0 < α | 0.09 | 0.17 | 0.04 | 0.12 | ||
(3.7) | (4.1) | (2.3) | (5.9) | ||||
UNDERVAL (MIS > 0) | 0 < βU < 1 | 0.18 | 0.16 | ||||
(4.0) | (5.3) | ||||||
[−17.9] | [−28.1] | ||||||
OVERVAL (MIS ≤ 0) | 0 < βO < βU | 0.10 | 0.03 | ||||
(1.3) | (1.0) | ||||||
COE | γ = 1 | 1.06 | 1.29 | 1.28 | 1.21 | 0.94 | 0.92 |
(1.6) | (2.2) | (2.2) | (3.2) | (3.8) | (3.8) | ||
[0.1] | [0.5] | [0.5] | [0.6] | [−0.2] | [−0.2] | ||
LnMVE | < 0 | −0.25 | −0.25 | −0.24 | −0.24 | ||
(−5.5) | (−5.5) | (−9.2) | (−9.3) | ||||
BOOK-to-MARKET | > 0 | 0.11 | 0.11 | −0.003 | −0.004 | ||
(1.7) | (1.8) | (−0.1) | (−0.1) | ||||
INVESTMENT | > 0 | −0.01 | −0.01 | 0.07 | 0.07 | ||
(−0.3) | (−0.4) | (4.3) | (4.3) | ||||
PROFITABILITY | > 0 | 0.03 | 0.03 | −0.002 | −0.001 | ||
(1.4) | (1.3) | (−0.1) | (−0.0) | ||||
MOM | < 0 | −0.20 | −0.20 | −0.19 | −0.18 | ||
(−5.4) | (−5.3) | (−2.9) | (−3.0) | ||||
REC | −0.05 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.01 | |||
(−2.6) | (−2.2) | (−1.4) | (−1.0) | ||||
Constant | 0.00 | −0.05 | −0.04 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.01 | |
(0.0) | (−2.6) | (−2.2) | (−1.4) | (−1.4) | (−1.0) | ||
# observations | 9,781 | 9,781 | 9,781 | 64,235 | 64,235 | 64,235 | |
Fixed effects | None | All | All | None | All | All | |
Adj. R2 when no FEs included | 1.3% | 1.0% | 3.6% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 2.1% | |
Adj. R2 with all FEs included | 43.9% | 43.9% | 34.9% | 35.0% |
3.2 Tests of our supplemental hypotheses
Dependent variable is the firm’s future return FRET over the specified one-quarter-long horizon | ||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
US analyst models | International analyst models | |||||||
(1) | (2) | (3) | (4) | (5) | (6) | (7) | (8) | |
Independent variables | 1st Q ahead | 2nd Q ahead | 3rd Q ahead | 4th Q ahead | 1st Q ahead | 2nd Q ahead | 3rd Q ahead | 4th Q ahead |
(2) | (3) | (4) | (5) | (7) | (8) | (9) | (10) | |
UNDERVAL MIS > 0) | 0.06 | 0.05 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.07 | 0.05 | 0.02 | 0.02 |
(3.7) | (2.4) | (1.0) | (0.9) | (9.1) | (3.7) | (1.5) | (1.5) | |
OVERVAL (MIS ≤ 0) | 0.01 | 0.04 | −0.04 | 0.01 | 0.03 | −0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
(0.3) | (1.4) | (−1.5) | (1.1) | (2.8) | (−0.5) | (0.2) | (0.3) | |
COE | 0.55 | 0.18 | 0.16 | 0.11 | 0.30 | 0.28 | 0.22 | 0.03 |
(1.8) | (1.3) | (1.4) | (0.9) | (4.5) | (2.5) | (3.2) | (0.7) | |
Firm characteristics? | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
# observations | 9,781 | 9,781 | 9,781 | 9,781 | 64,285 | 64,285 | 64,285 | 64,285 |
Fixed effects | All | All | All | All | All | All | All | All |
Adj. R2 no FEs included | 2.0% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.6% |
Adj. R2 all FEs included | 21.6% | 17.3% | 14.4% | 15.4% | 20.7% | 14.1% | 11.7% | 17.4% |
Dependent variable FRET is 1-year-ahead stock return | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
Independent variables | Expected coef | US | International | International |
(1) | (2) | (3) | ||
UNDERVAL (MIS > 0) | 0 < βU < 1 | 0.20 | 0.16 | 0.36 |
(4.6) | (6.4) | (6.2) | ||
OVERVAL (MIS ≤ 0) | 0 < βO < βU | 0.07 | 0.01 | 0.12 |
(0.8) | (0.3) | (2.0) | ||
UNDERVAL * MOM | < 0 | −0.14 | −0.16 | |
(−3.0) | (−2.4) | |||
OVERVAL * MOM | 0.17 | 0.15 | ||
(1.5) | (2.4) | |||
UNDERVAL * sdIRET | < 0 | −0.58 | ||
(−4.5) | ||||
OVERVAL * sdIRET | −0.31 | |||
(−1.8) | ||||
COE | γ = 1 | 1.26 | 0.90 | 1.04 |
(2.2) | (3.9) | (4.0) | ||
Firm characteristics included? | Yes | Yes | Yes | |
# observations | 9,781 | 64,285 | 64,285 | |
Fixed effects | All | All | All | |
Adj. R2 when no FEs included | 3.8% | 2.3% | 2.8% | |
Adj. R2 | 44.2% | 35.2% | 36.8% |
3.3 Robustness tests
3.3.1 The information in IRET
(1) | (2) | (3) | (4) | (5) | (6) | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
IRET Quantile | Intercept | REC | COE | MOM + | MOM- | MVE |
10 | −0.02 | 0.17 | −0.89 | −0.08 | 0.04 | −0.00 |
(3.6) | (98.2) | (−15.0) | (−17.2) | (3.0) | (−3.3) | |
25 | −0.04 | 0.17 | 0.01 | −0.04 | −0.09 | −0.00 |
(−12.3) | (174.8) | (0.4) | (−15.3) | (−15.6) | (−4.3) | |
50 | −0.00 | 0.18 | 0.36 | −0.02 | −0.20 | −0.00 |
(−0.3) | (216.5) | (14.7) | (−12.2) | (−34.1) | (−4.5) | |
75 | 0.02 | 0.19 | 0.87 | −0.01 | −0.45 | −0.00 |
(5.5) | (169.5) | (24.3) | (−3.7) | (−35.3) | (−3.4) | |
90 | 0.02 | 0.22 | 1.78 | 0.03 | −0.92 | −0.00 |
(2.3) | (89.5) | (20.7) | (3.4) | (−35.0) | (−1.8) |
3.3.2 IRET and measurement error in MIS
Independent variables | Expected coef | Dependent variable FRET is 1-year-ahead stock return | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
US | International | ||||
(1) | (2) | (3) | (4) | ||
IRET | 0 < α | 0.17 | 0.12 | ||
(4.1) | (5.9) | ||||
UNDERVAL# (IRET > 0) | 0 < βU < 1 | 0.18 | 0.15 | ||
(4.1) | (5.5) | ||||
[−18.7] | [−31.2] | ||||
OVERVAL# (IRET ≤ 0) | 0 < βO < βU | 0.08 | 0.003 | ||
(0.9) | (0.08) | ||||
COE | γ = 1 | 1.13 | 1.12 | 0.83 | 0.82 |
(2.0) | (2.0) | (3.4) | (3.5) | ||
# observations | 9,781 | 9,781 | 64,235 | 64,235 | |
Control variables | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | |
Fixed effects | All | All | All | All | |
Adj. R2 when no FEs included | 3.6% | 3.6% | 2.0% | 2.1% | |
Adj. R2 with all FEs included | 44.0% | 44.0% | 34.9% | 35.0% |
3.3.3 Other robustness tests
Scaled-up IRET | Different standard error clustering | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Independent variables | (1) | (2) | (3) | (4) | (5) | (6) |
IRET | 0.11 | |||||
(5.9) | ||||||
UNDERVAL# (IRET > 0) | 0.14 | 0.16 | 0.16 | 0.16 | 0.16 | |
(5.8) | (8.3) | (6.0) | (8.7) | (9.7) | ||
OVERVAL# (IRET ≤ 0) | −0.00 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.03 | |
(−0.0) | (1.3) | (1.2) | (1.5) | (1.7) | ||
COE | 0.73 | 0.82 | 0.95 | 0.95 | 0.95 | 0.95 |
(3.1) | (3.4) | (6.1) | (4.0) | (5.9) | (6.7) | |
# observations | 74,066 | 74,066 | 74,066 | 74,066 | 74,066 | 74,066 |
Controls | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
Fixed effects | All | All | All | All | All | All |
Adj. R2 when no FEs included | 2.1% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 2.2% |
Adj. R2 with all FEs included | 35.9% | 36.0% | 36.0% | 36.0% | 36.0% | 36.0% |