10. The Impact of COVID-19 on the Landscape of Terrorism

Since early 2020, observers of international security have widely speculated about the likely impact of COVID-19 on the landscape of terrorism and countering violent extremism. Across both the public and private sector, key debates have centered on six main areas. First, radicalization. From a top-down perspective, how might terrorist organizations use the global pandemic to recruit new followers? At the grass roots level, could frustration against nationwide lockdowns and resentment about economic devastation increase the desire amongst the general population to engage in extremist ideology? Second, direct attacks. To what extent has the global pandemic impacted the ability of terrorists to conduct operations? Third, bioterrorism. Perhaps the most significant question considered by analysts is whether the Coronavirus will result in a paradigm shift in modus operandi from conventional weapons to biological agents. Fourth, counterterrorism. Due to the unprecedented level of state resources needed to tackle the global pandemic, there is a natural assumption that terrorism has significantly declined in relative importance. In the penultimate section of the chapter, we seek to understand how the global pandemic has and will continue to impact counterterrorism in the short, medium, and long term. To conclude, we will consider the future of terrorism, counterterrorism and extremism post-COVID. Will dramatic budget cuts and a retreat of western forces from wars such as in Iraq, Syria, and Afghanistan result in a resurgence of Islamist terrorism?