The north European power system dispatch in 2010 and 2020

Prospectively, the European power system will need to incorporate a large share of power production from renewable energy sources. Likewise a significant change in the portfolio of thermal power plants and a strengthening of interconnections is expected. Moreover, the current process of integrating electricity markets will alter the system dispatch and have a significant impact on electricity prices as well. An operation optimisation model suited for hydro-thermal systems (EMPS), is applied to assess these changes. A 2010 and a 2020 scenario of the Northern European power system are developed and simulated. The scope of the analysis is on the increasing interaction of the Nordic and continental European power systems. Given nearly a doubling of interconnection capacity between the Nordic region and continental Europe up to 2020, the possibility of balancing the variable power production from renewable energy sources with Nordic hydro power will be enhanced. The simulations show reduced operation of thermal power plants, a higher variability of the Nordic hydro power production as well as an overall increased exchange among the areas. The impact of the level of wind power production on the system dispatch is illustrated. Moreover, electricity prices become more volatile, but their average decreases.