Skip to main content

2020 | OriginalPaper | Buchkapitel

The Paris Agreement and Zero-Emission Vehicles in Europe: Scenarios for the Road Towards a Decarbonised Passenger Car Fleet

verfasst von : Nils Hooftman, Maarten Messagie, Joeri Van Mierlo, Thierry Coosemans

Erschienen in: Towards User-Centric Transport in Europe 2

Verlag: Springer International Publishing

Aktivieren Sie unsere intelligente Suche, um passende Fachinhalte oder Patente zu finden.

search-config
loading …

Abstract

A model is presented for estimating the impact on climate change by the European passenger car fleet. Based on real-world CO2 emissions, none of the scenarios allows compliance with the assumed 10% reduction by 2020, relative to 2005. Given a robust policy to limit real-world emissions by 2030, zero-emission sales shares as low as 8% allows a CO2 reduction by 30% by 2030, relative to 2005. This nonetheless requires a quick phase-out of conventional powertrains by 2035 to keep track with the desired decarbonisation by 2050. Therefore, increasing the effort on both a European as a national/regional level to incentivise both the industry and consumers to shift towards zero-emission technology is one of the key challenges on the short-term.

Sie haben noch keine Lizenz? Dann Informieren Sie sich jetzt über unsere Produkte:

Springer Professional "Wirtschaft+Technik"

Online-Abonnement

Mit Springer Professional "Wirtschaft+Technik" erhalten Sie Zugriff auf:

  • über 102.000 Bücher
  • über 537 Zeitschriften

aus folgenden Fachgebieten:

  • Automobil + Motoren
  • Bauwesen + Immobilien
  • Business IT + Informatik
  • Elektrotechnik + Elektronik
  • Energie + Nachhaltigkeit
  • Finance + Banking
  • Management + Führung
  • Marketing + Vertrieb
  • Maschinenbau + Werkstoffe
  • Versicherung + Risiko

Jetzt Wissensvorsprung sichern!

Springer Professional "Technik"

Online-Abonnement

Mit Springer Professional "Technik" erhalten Sie Zugriff auf:

  • über 67.000 Bücher
  • über 390 Zeitschriften

aus folgenden Fachgebieten:

  • Automobil + Motoren
  • Bauwesen + Immobilien
  • Business IT + Informatik
  • Elektrotechnik + Elektronik
  • Energie + Nachhaltigkeit
  • Maschinenbau + Werkstoffe




 

Jetzt Wissensvorsprung sichern!

Springer Professional "Wirtschaft"

Online-Abonnement

Mit Springer Professional "Wirtschaft" erhalten Sie Zugriff auf:

  • über 67.000 Bücher
  • über 340 Zeitschriften

aus folgenden Fachgebieten:

  • Bauwesen + Immobilien
  • Business IT + Informatik
  • Finance + Banking
  • Management + Führung
  • Marketing + Vertrieb
  • Versicherung + Risiko




Jetzt Wissensvorsprung sichern!

Literatur
2.
Zurück zum Zitat European Commission: Roadmap to a Single European Transport Area - Towards a competitive and resource efficient transport system, Brussels (2011) European Commission: Roadmap to a Single European Transport Area - Towards a competitive and resource efficient transport system, Brussels (2011)
3.
Zurück zum Zitat Report of the Conference of the Parties on its twenty-first session, held in Paris from 30 November to 13 December 2015 Addendum Part two: Action taken by the Conference of the Parties at its twenty-first session. In: 2015 United Nations Climate Change Conference, Paris (2015) Report of the Conference of the Parties on its twenty-first session, held in Paris from 30 November to 13 December 2015 Addendum Part two: Action taken by the Conference of the Parties at its twenty-first session. In: 2015 United Nations Climate Change Conference, Paris (2015)
4.
Zurück zum Zitat Olivier, J., Janssens-Maenhout, G., Muntean, M., Peters, J.: Trends in Global CO2 Emissions - 2016 Report, The Hague (2016) Olivier, J., Janssens-Maenhout, G., Muntean, M., Peters, J.: Trends in Global CO2 Emissions - 2016 Report, The Hague (2016)
5.
Zurück zum Zitat Muncrief, R., Sharpe, B.: Overview of the heavy-duty vehicle market and CO2 emissions in the European Union, Washington D.C. (2015) Muncrief, R., Sharpe, B.: Overview of the heavy-duty vehicle market and CO2 emissions in the European Union, Washington D.C. (2015)
7.
Zurück zum Zitat EEA: Monitoring CO2 emissions from new passenger cars and vans in 2017, Copenhagen (2019) EEA: Monitoring CO2 emissions from new passenger cars and vans in 2017, Copenhagen (2019)
8.
Zurück zum Zitat European Commission: Regulation (EU) 2019/631 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 17 April 2019 setting CO2 emission performance standards for new passenger cars and for new light commercial vehicles, and repealing Regulations (EC) No 443/2009 and (EU) No 510/2011. Off. J. Eur. Union, vol. 25.4.2019, no. L 111/13 (2019) European Commission: Regulation (EU) 2019/631 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 17 April 2019 setting CO2 emission performance standards for new passenger cars and for new light commercial vehicles, and repealing Regulations (EC) No 443/2009 and (EU) No 510/2011. Off. J. Eur. Union, vol. 25.4.2019, no. L 111/13 (2019)
9.
Zurück zum Zitat Mock, P., Kühlwein, J., Tietge, U., Franco, V., Bandivadekar, A., German, J.: The WLTP: how a new test procedure for cars will affect fuel consumption values in the EU, Washington D.C. (2014) Mock, P., Kühlwein, J., Tietge, U., Franco, V., Bandivadekar, A., German, J.: The WLTP: how a new test procedure for cars will affect fuel consumption values in the EU, Washington D.C. (2014)
10.
Zurück zum Zitat Pavlovic, J., Marotta, A., Ciuffo, B.: CO2 emissions and energy demands of vehicles tested under the NEDC and the new WLTP type approval test procedures. Appl. Energy 177, 661–670 (2016)CrossRef Pavlovic, J., Marotta, A., Ciuffo, B.: CO2 emissions and energy demands of vehicles tested under the NEDC and the new WLTP type approval test procedures. Appl. Energy 177, 661–670 (2016)CrossRef
11.
Zurück zum Zitat Mock, P.: CO2 standards for new cars and light-commercial vehicles in the European Union, Berlin (2016) Mock, P.: CO2 standards for new cars and light-commercial vehicles in the European Union, Berlin (2016)
12.
Zurück zum Zitat Ligterink, N.E., Smokers, R.T.M., Spreen, J.: Supporting analysis on real-world light-duty vehicle CO2 emissions, Delft (2016) Ligterink, N.E., Smokers, R.T.M., Spreen, J.: Supporting analysis on real-world light-duty vehicle CO2 emissions, Delft (2016)
13.
Zurück zum Zitat Ligterink, N., Smokers, R.: Real-world fuel consumption of passenger cars based on monitoring of Dutch fuel-pass data, Delft (2016) Ligterink, N., Smokers, R.: Real-world fuel consumption of passenger cars based on monitoring of Dutch fuel-pass data, Delft (2016)
14.
Zurück zum Zitat Mock, P.: 2020–2030 CO2 standards for new cars and light-commercial vehicles in the European Union, Berlin (2016) Mock, P.: 2020–2030 CO2 standards for new cars and light-commercial vehicles in the European Union, Berlin (2016)
15.
Zurück zum Zitat Hooftman, N., Messagie, M., Coosemans, T., Van Mierlo, J.: Indicators for the 2015 new and second-hand car fleet in Belgium and the regions, Brussels (2016) Hooftman, N., Messagie, M., Coosemans, T., Van Mierlo, J.: Indicators for the 2015 new and second-hand car fleet in Belgium and the regions, Brussels (2016)
16.
Zurück zum Zitat Smokers, R., et al.: Support for the revision of Regulation (EC) No 443/2009 on CO2 emissions from cars, Delft (2011) Smokers, R., et al.: Support for the revision of Regulation (EC) No 443/2009 on CO2 emissions from cars, Delft (2011)
17.
Zurück zum Zitat Ligterink, N.E., Smokers, R.T.M.: Monitoring van plug-in hybride voertuigen (PHEVs) April 2012 t/m Maart 2015. TNO, Delft (2015) Ligterink, N.E., Smokers, R.T.M.: Monitoring van plug-in hybride voertuigen (PHEVs) April 2012 t/m Maart 2015. TNO, Delft (2015)
18.
Zurück zum Zitat Tietge, U., et al.: From laboratory to road: a 2015 update of official and “real-world” fuel consumption and CO2 values for passenger cars in Europe, Berlin (2015) Tietge, U., et al.: From laboratory to road: a 2015 update of official and “real-world” fuel consumption and CO2 values for passenger cars in Europe, Berlin (2015)
19.
Zurück zum Zitat Ligterink, N., Smokers, R.: Monitoring van plug-in hybride voertuigen (PHEVs) April 2012 t/m maart 2016, Den Haag (2016) Ligterink, N., Smokers, R.: Monitoring van plug-in hybride voertuigen (PHEVs) April 2012 t/m maart 2016, Den Haag (2016)
20.
Zurück zum Zitat ACEA: The automobile industry Pocket Guide 2013, Brussels (2013) ACEA: The automobile industry Pocket Guide 2013, Brussels (2013)
22.
Zurück zum Zitat ICCT: European vehicle market statistics - Pocketbook 2016/17, Berlin (2016) ICCT: European vehicle market statistics - Pocketbook 2016/17, Berlin (2016)
23.
Zurück zum Zitat ICCT: European Vehicle Market Statistics - Pocketbook 2015/16, Berlin (2015) ICCT: European Vehicle Market Statistics - Pocketbook 2015/16, Berlin (2015)
24.
Zurück zum Zitat Mehlhart, G., Merz, C., Akkermans, L., Jordal-Jorgensen, J.: Öko-Institut e.V.: publication, Darmstadt (2011) Mehlhart, G., Merz, C., Akkermans, L., Jordal-Jorgensen, J.: Öko-Institut e.V.: publication, Darmstadt (2011)
25.
Zurück zum Zitat Dun, C., Pridmore, A., Gibson, G., Kollamthodi, S., Skinner, I.: Data gathering and analysis to assess the impact of mileage on the cost effectiveness of the LDV CO2 Regulations Climate Action, Didcot (2014) Dun, C., Pridmore, A., Gibson, G., Kollamthodi, S., Skinner, I.: Data gathering and analysis to assess the impact of mileage on the cost effectiveness of the LDV CO2 Regulations Climate Action, Didcot (2014)
26.
Zurück zum Zitat Kanari, N., Pineau, J.-L., Shallari, S.: End-of-life vehicle recycling in the European Union. J. Miner. Met. Mater. Soc. 55, 15–19 (2003)CrossRef Kanari, N., Pineau, J.-L., Shallari, S.: End-of-life vehicle recycling in the European Union. J. Miner. Met. Mater. Soc. 55, 15–19 (2003)CrossRef
27.
Zurück zum Zitat Clima, D.G.: Revision of Regulation (EU) No 443/2009 and Regulation (EU) No 510/2011 regulating CO2 emissions from light duty vehicles, Brussels (2016) Clima, D.G.: Revision of Regulation (EU) No 443/2009 and Regulation (EU) No 510/2011 regulating CO2 emissions from light duty vehicles, Brussels (2016)
28.
Zurück zum Zitat Kohlmeyer, R.: Annual report on end-of-life vehicle reuse/recycling/recovery rates in Germany 2014, Dessau-Rosslau, Germany (2014) Kohlmeyer, R.: Annual report on end-of-life vehicle reuse/recycling/recovery rates in Germany 2014, Dessau-Rosslau, Germany (2014)
29.
Zurück zum Zitat IEA: Electric and Plug-In Hybrid Vehicle Roadmap, Paris (2010) IEA: Electric and Plug-In Hybrid Vehicle Roadmap, Paris (2010)
30.
Zurück zum Zitat Kampman, B., Van Essen, H., Braat, W., Grünig, M., Kantamaneni, R., Gabel, E.: Impacts of Electric Vehicles - scenarios and policy implications, Delft (2011) Kampman, B., Van Essen, H., Braat, W., Grünig, M., Kantamaneni, R., Gabel, E.: Impacts of Electric Vehicles - scenarios and policy implications, Delft (2011)
31.
Zurück zum Zitat Pasaoglu, G., Honselaar, M., Thiel, C.: Potential vehicle fleet CO2 reductions and cost implications for various vehicle technology deployment scenarios in Europe. Energy Policy 40(1), 404–421 (2012)CrossRef Pasaoglu, G., Honselaar, M., Thiel, C.: Potential vehicle fleet CO2 reductions and cost implications for various vehicle technology deployment scenarios in Europe. Energy Policy 40(1), 404–421 (2012)CrossRef
32.
Zurück zum Zitat Klink, G., Krubasik, S., Weber, T., Mickelson, S., Dyer, S., Mathur, M.: Powertrain 2025, Chicago, Illinois (2012) Klink, G., Krubasik, S., Weber, T., Mickelson, S., Dyer, S., Mathur, M.: Powertrain 2025, Chicago, Illinois (2012)
33.
Zurück zum Zitat Hill, N., et al.: Fuelling Europe’s Future jobs, London (2013) Hill, N., et al.: Fuelling Europe’s Future jobs, London (2013)
34.
Zurück zum Zitat McKinsey: Electric vehicles in Europe: gearing up for a new phase? Amsterdam (2014) McKinsey: Electric vehicles in Europe: gearing up for a new phase? Amsterdam (2014)
35.
Zurück zum Zitat Wyman, O.: Future of ICE: why accelerating R&D spend is critical for future competitiveness & to reach 50g, London (2015) Wyman, O.: Future of ICE: why accelerating R&D spend is critical for future competitiveness & to reach 50g, London (2015)
36.
Zurück zum Zitat Chèze, B., Gastineau, P., Tchung-Ming, S.: D4. 1 Policy scenarios to sustain EV deployment, Lyon (2015) Chèze, B., Gastineau, P., Tchung-Ming, S.: D4. 1 Policy scenarios to sustain EV deployment, Lyon (2015)
37.
Zurück zum Zitat ACEA: Electric Vehicles, Brussels (2016) ACEA: Electric Vehicles, Brussels (2016)
38.
Zurück zum Zitat van der Slot, A., Schlick, T., Pfeiffer, W., Baum, M.: Integrated Fuels and Vehicles Roadmap to 2030+, Munich (2016) van der Slot, A., Schlick, T., Pfeiffer, W., Baum, M.: Integrated Fuels and Vehicles Roadmap to 2030+, Munich (2016)
39.
Zurück zum Zitat Witkamp, B., van Gijlswijk, R., Bolech, M., Coosemans, T., Hooftman, N.: The transition to a Zero Emission Vehicles fleet for cars in the EU by 2050, Brussels (2017) Witkamp, B., van Gijlswijk, R., Bolech, M., Coosemans, T., Hooftman, N.: The transition to a Zero Emission Vehicles fleet for cars in the EU by 2050, Brussels (2017)
40.
Zurück zum Zitat McKerracher, C.: The global EV market: where to next? In: EVS30, Stuttgart, 9–11 October (2017) McKerracher, C.: The global EV market: where to next? In: EVS30, Stuttgart, 9–11 October (2017)
42.
Zurück zum Zitat WEC: World Energy Perspectives E-Mobility: Closing the Emissions Gap, London (2016) WEC: World Energy Perspectives E-Mobility: Closing the Emissions Gap, London (2016)
Metadaten
Titel
The Paris Agreement and Zero-Emission Vehicles in Europe: Scenarios for the Road Towards a Decarbonised Passenger Car Fleet
verfasst von
Nils Hooftman
Maarten Messagie
Joeri Van Mierlo
Thierry Coosemans
Copyright-Jahr
2020
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-38028-1_11

    Premium Partner