Skip to main content
Erschienen in: Asia-Pacific Financial Markets 3/2020

14.01.2020 | Original Research

Trend of Commodity Prices and Exchange Rate in Australian Economy: Time Varying Parameter Model Approach

verfasst von: Debasish Roy, Ramaprasad Bhar

Erschienen in: Asia-Pacific Financial Markets | Ausgabe 3/2020

Einloggen

Aktivieren Sie unsere intelligente Suche, um passende Fachinhalte oder Patente zu finden.

search-config
loading …

Abstract

Here we investigate the relationship between export commodity prices and AUD/USD exchange rate fluctuation using time varying parameter model. Using monthly data for over 30 years we found that exchange rate is determined by commodity prices and Australian base metal indices is highly correlated with country’s exchange rate. We have considered linear Gaussian state space model where common variance is treated as a stochastic time varying variable which gets considered for modeling economic time series.

Sie haben noch keine Lizenz? Dann Informieren Sie sich jetzt über unsere Produkte:

Springer Professional "Wirtschaft+Technik"

Online-Abonnement

Mit Springer Professional "Wirtschaft+Technik" erhalten Sie Zugriff auf:

  • über 102.000 Bücher
  • über 537 Zeitschriften

aus folgenden Fachgebieten:

  • Automobil + Motoren
  • Bauwesen + Immobilien
  • Business IT + Informatik
  • Elektrotechnik + Elektronik
  • Energie + Nachhaltigkeit
  • Finance + Banking
  • Management + Führung
  • Marketing + Vertrieb
  • Maschinenbau + Werkstoffe
  • Versicherung + Risiko

Jetzt Wissensvorsprung sichern!

Springer Professional "Wirtschaft"

Online-Abonnement

Mit Springer Professional "Wirtschaft" erhalten Sie Zugriff auf:

  • über 67.000 Bücher
  • über 340 Zeitschriften

aus folgenden Fachgebieten:

  • Bauwesen + Immobilien
  • Business IT + Informatik
  • Finance + Banking
  • Management + Führung
  • Marketing + Vertrieb
  • Versicherung + Risiko




Jetzt Wissensvorsprung sichern!

Literatur
Zurück zum Zitat Arezki, R., Dumitrescu, E., Freytag, A., & Quintyn, M. (2012). Commodity prices and exchange rate volatility: Lessons from South Africas capital account liberalization. In: Working paper, no. WP/12/168. International Monetary Fund. Arezki, R., Dumitrescu, E., Freytag, A., & Quintyn, M. (2012). Commodity prices and exchange rate volatility: Lessons from South Africas capital account liberalization. In: Working paper, no. WP/12/168. International Monetary Fund.
Zurück zum Zitat Bhar, R. (2015). Commodity export prices and exchange rate: An Australian perspective. International Journal of Economics and Finance, 7(1), 1–13.CrossRef Bhar, R. (2015). Commodity export prices and exchange rate: An Australian perspective. International Journal of Economics and Finance, 7(1), 1–13.CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Bhar, R., & Bhar, R. (2016). Commodity prices and AUD/USD exchange rate: A regime dependent analysis. Journal of Business and Policy Research, 11(1), 49–61.CrossRef Bhar, R., & Bhar, R. (2016). Commodity prices and AUD/USD exchange rate: A regime dependent analysis. Journal of Business and Policy Research, 11(1), 49–61.CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Bierens, H. J., & Martins, L. F. (2010). Time-varying cointegration. Econometric Theory, 26(5), 1453–1490.CrossRef Bierens, H. J., & Martins, L. F. (2010). Time-varying cointegration. Econometric Theory, 26(5), 1453–1490.CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Brockwell, P. J., & Davis, R. A. (1987). Time series: Theory and methods. New York: Springer.CrossRef Brockwell, P. J., & Davis, R. A. (1987). Time series: Theory and methods. New York: Springer.CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Chen, Y. C., Rogoff, K., & Rossi, B. (2008) Can exchange rates forecast commodity prices? In: Working paper, no. 13901. National Bureau of Economic Research. Chen, Y. C., Rogoff, K., & Rossi, B. (2008) Can exchange rates forecast commodity prices? In: Working paper, no. 13901. National Bureau of Economic Research.
Zurück zum Zitat Durbin, J., & Koopman, S. J. (2012). Time series analysis by state space methods. Oxford: Oxford University Press.CrossRef Durbin, J., & Koopman, S. J. (2012). Time series analysis by state space methods. Oxford: Oxford University Press.CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Edwards, S. (1985). Commodity export prices and the real exchange rate in developing countries: coffee in Colombia. In: WP No. 1579. Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research. Edwards, S. (1985). Commodity export prices and the real exchange rate in developing countries: coffee in Colombia. In: WP No. 1579. Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research.
Zurück zum Zitat Engle, R. F., & Watson, M. W. (1987). The Kalman filter: Applications to forecasting and rational expectations models. In T. F. Bewley (Ed.), Advances in econometrics: Fifth world congress (Vol. I). Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. Engle, R. F., & Watson, M. W. (1987). The Kalman filter: Applications to forecasting and rational expectations models. In T. F. Bewley (Ed.), Advances in econometrics: Fifth world congress (Vol. I). Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
Zurück zum Zitat Hamilton, J. (1994). Time series analysis. Princeton: Princeton University Press. Hamilton, J. (1994). Time series analysis. Princeton: Princeton University Press.
Zurück zum Zitat Harvey, A. C. (1989). Forecasting, structural time series models and the Kalman filter. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. Harvey, A. C. (1989). Forecasting, structural time series models and the Kalman filter. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
Zurück zum Zitat Harvey, A. C. (1990). The econometric analysis of time series (2nd ed.). Cambridge, MA: The MIT Press. Harvey, A. C. (1990). The econometric analysis of time series (2nd ed.). Cambridge, MA: The MIT Press.
Zurück zum Zitat Harvey, A. C., & Koopman, S. J. (1997). Trends and cycles in multivariate time series. In C. Heij, H. Schumacher, B. Hanzon, & C. Praagman (Eds.), System dynamics in economic and financial models. Hoboken: Wiley. Harvey, A. C., & Koopman, S. J. (1997). Trends and cycles in multivariate time series. In C. Heij, H. Schumacher, B. Hanzon, & C. Praagman (Eds.), System dynamics in economic and financial models. Hoboken: Wiley.
Zurück zum Zitat Kim, C.-J., Kishor, N. K., & Nelson, C. R. (2006). A time-varying parameter model for a forward-looking monetary policy rule based on real-time data. In: Working paper (UWEC 32 2007). Department of Economics, University of Washington. Kim, C.-J., Kishor, N. K., & Nelson, C. R. (2006). A time-varying parameter model for a forward-looking monetary policy rule based on real-time data. In: Working paper (UWEC 32 2007). Department of Economics, University of Washington.
Zurück zum Zitat Kim, C. J., & Nelson, C. R. (1999). State space models with regime switching. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press. Kim, C. J., & Nelson, C. R. (1999). State space models with regime switching. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.
Zurück zum Zitat Kitagawa, G. (2010). Introduction to time series modeling. Boca Raton: Chapman & Hall/CRC.CrossRef Kitagawa, G. (2010). Introduction to time series modeling. Boca Raton: Chapman & Hall/CRC.CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Kitagawa, G., & Gersch, W. (1985). A smoothness priors time-varying AR coefficient modeling of non-stationary covariance time series. IEEE Transactions on Automatic Control, 30(1), 48–56.CrossRef Kitagawa, G., & Gersch, W. (1985). A smoothness priors time-varying AR coefficient modeling of non-stationary covariance time series. IEEE Transactions on Automatic Control, 30(1), 48–56.CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Kitagawa, G., & Gersch, W. (1996). Smoothness priors analysis of time series. New York, NY: Springer.CrossRef Kitagawa, G., & Gersch, W. (1996). Smoothness priors analysis of time series. New York, NY: Springer.CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Prado, R., & Huerta, G. (2002). Time-varying auto regressions with model order uncertainty. Journal of Time Series Analysis, 23(5), 599–618.CrossRef Prado, R., & Huerta, G. (2002). Time-varying auto regressions with model order uncertainty. Journal of Time Series Analysis, 23(5), 599–618.CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Prado, R., & West, M. (1997). Exploratory modelling of multiple non-stationary time series: Latent process structure and decompositions. In T. G. Gregoire, D. R. Brillinger, P. J. Diggle, E. R. Cohen, W. G. Warren, & R. D. Wolfinger (Eds.), Modelling longitudinal and spatially correlated data (pp. 349–361). New York: Springer.CrossRef Prado, R., & West, M. (1997). Exploratory modelling of multiple non-stationary time series: Latent process structure and decompositions. In T. G. Gregoire, D. R. Brillinger, P. J. Diggle, E. R. Cohen, W. G. Warren, & R. D. Wolfinger (Eds.), Modelling longitudinal and spatially correlated data (pp. 349–361). New York: Springer.CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Prado, R., & West, M. (2010). Time series: Modelling, computation and inference. Chapman & Hall/CRC, The Taylor Francis Group. Prado, R., & West, M. (2010). Time series: Modelling, computation and inference. Chapman & Hall/CRC, The Taylor Francis Group.
Zurück zum Zitat Rao, T. S. (1970). The fitting of non-stationary time-series models with time dependent parameters. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series B (Statistical Methodology), 32(2), 312–322. Rao, T. S. (1970). The fitting of non-stationary time-series models with time dependent parameters. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series B (Statistical Methodology), 32(2), 312–322.
Zurück zum Zitat Rossi, B. (2005). Optimal tests for nested model selection with underlying parameter instability. Econometric Theory, 21(5), 962–990.CrossRef Rossi, B. (2005). Optimal tests for nested model selection with underlying parameter instability. Econometric Theory, 21(5), 962–990.CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Shumway, R. H., & Stoffer, D. S. (2000). Time series analysis and its applications: Springer texts in statistics. New York: Springer.CrossRef Shumway, R. H., & Stoffer, D. S. (2000). Time series analysis and its applications: Springer texts in statistics. New York: Springer.CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Wells, C. (1996). The Kalman filter in finance. Dordrecht: Kluwer Academic Publishers.CrossRef Wells, C. (1996). The Kalman filter in finance. Dordrecht: Kluwer Academic Publishers.CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat West, M., & Harrison, P. J. (1997). Bayesian forecasting and dynamic models (2nd ed.). New York: Springer. West, M., & Harrison, P. J. (1997). Bayesian forecasting and dynamic models (2nd ed.). New York: Springer.
Zurück zum Zitat West, M., Harrison, P. J., & Migon, H. S. (1985). Dynamic generalized linear models and Bayesian forecasting (with discussion). Journal of American Statistical Association, 80(389), 73–97.CrossRef West, M., Harrison, P. J., & Migon, H. S. (1985). Dynamic generalized linear models and Bayesian forecasting (with discussion). Journal of American Statistical Association, 80(389), 73–97.CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat West, M., Prado, R., & Krystal, A. D. (1999). Evaluation and comparison of EEG traces: Latent structure in non-stationary time series. Journal of American Statistical Association, 94(446), 375–387.CrossRef West, M., Prado, R., & Krystal, A. D. (1999). Evaluation and comparison of EEG traces: Latent structure in non-stationary time series. Journal of American Statistical Association, 94(446), 375–387.CrossRef
Metadaten
Titel
Trend of Commodity Prices and Exchange Rate in Australian Economy: Time Varying Parameter Model Approach
verfasst von
Debasish Roy
Ramaprasad Bhar
Publikationsdatum
14.01.2020
Verlag
Springer Japan
Erschienen in
Asia-Pacific Financial Markets / Ausgabe 3/2020
Print ISSN: 1387-2834
Elektronische ISSN: 1573-6946
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1007/s10690-020-09301-9

Weitere Artikel der Ausgabe 3/2020

Asia-Pacific Financial Markets 3/2020 Zur Ausgabe