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2024 | OriginalPaper | Buchkapitel
10. US Exit from the Deal and Tehran’s Intense Proliferation Interest
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Abstract
This chapter focuses on Tehran's shifting proliferation aspirations and highlights Iran's transformation from a low-to-moderate proliferation aspirant to a moderate-to-high proliferation aspirant following the fracture of the nuclear deal by the United States. The chapter outlines that Iran has already breached its uranium limit, as agreed upon in the 2015 nuclear deal, thus partially stepping out of the agreement. Despite remaining compliant with the JCPOA for a year after the U.S. withdrawal, Iran has now accumulated sufficient uranium for the production of multiple nuclear weapons and has resumed enrichment activities at the underground site in Fordow. There is a concern that if the US imposes further sanctions despite its own non-compliance with the deal, and Iran may withdraw from both the JCPOA and the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). The “maximum pressure” policy pursued by the Trump administration is highlighted as a significant trigger, leading to Iran producing at least eight times more enriched uranium than permitted under the agreement. Furthermore, Iran's refusal to cooperate fully with international inspectors is noted, and the chapter presents evidence of Iran progressively deviating from its commitments under the deal.
The Biden administration's decision to maintain sanctions on Iran, mirroring the approach of the Trump era, has significantly impacted Iran's nuclear proliferation activities. These sanctions have subjected Iran to economic pressure, severely restricting its international trade, access to financial markets, and oil exports, thereby impeding its ability to invest in its nuclear program. In response, Iran has escalated its nuclear activities, including higher uranium enrichment levels and the development of advanced centrifuges, signaling a resolve to withstand economic coercion. While the Biden administration seeks to engage in negotiations to revive the JCPOA or establish a new agreement, the continued sanctions have created a complex dynamic, whereby Iran responds to economic constraints by asserting its nuclear capabilities, underscoring the ongoing challenges in US-Iran relations and the intricacies of nuclear diplomacy in the region.
The chapter underscores Iran's strong inclination toward proliferation decisions, attributing this shift to the US defection from the deal and the subsequent lack of trust in any security arrangement. The motivations behind Iran's current uranium enrichment activities are explored in detail. A comparison is drawn between Iran's current proliferation activities and its past actions, indicating that the current intensity of Iran's proliferation efforts is the most rapid to date. This highlights the heightened determination of states to achieve their security goals under any circumstance when faced with the failure of such agreements. Additionally, it provides a causal explanation for Iran's accelerated proliferation activities, considering facilitating factors such as the presence of long-running rivalries, the existence of nuclear latency, the desire to regain lost prestige and identity, and the expectation of trade and aid benefits. It also analyzes the role played by the precipitating factor, namely the differences between major powers involved in the deal, in driving Iran's renewed interest in proliferation.