Using an individual-based model for assessment of sea turtle population viability

Marine turtle species have a complex life history characterized by interannual variability in reproductive performance and a long life span. These ecological features in combination with the animals’ highly migratory nature create numerous difficulties when trying to assess population dynamics. This study attempts to couple existing information on species demographics and behavioral strategies with simple energetic rules in a theoretical framework. We study sea turtle population dynamics using an individual-based model that incorporates known behavioral-ecological characteristics of the species. Methodology used to design the model was based on the superindividual approach (Scheffer et al. Ecol Model 80:161–170, 1995). We constructed our simulation experiment on a virtual sea turtle population, which was parameterized by using recent literature reviews with emphasis on reproductive parameters of the Mediterranean loggerhead sea turtle population. Switching rules describing critical processes of reproductive performances were established as theoretical functions of efficiency of energy transfer. In order to explore the significance of variable reproductive patterns upon population dynamics and persistence, a series of simulations was performed. The model was also run under fluctuated demographic variables to perform a sensitivity analysis of critical parameters and life-history stages. Based on the specific model parameterization, simulation results show that population persistence was most sensitive to fecundity and to survival at the pelagic juvenile stage. Additionally a surprising finding is the relatively high importance of egg survival in terms of both hatching and hatchling success. We conclude that enhancing the population with new individuals by increasing survival in the early life stages could compensate for additional losses in other age classes. The need for further research regarding biological and behavioral features as well as basic demographic insights into the endangered loggerhead sea turtle is also highlighted.