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Political Behavior
Erschienen in: Political Behavior 4/2006

01.12.2006 | Original Paper

Vota por tu Futuro: Partisan Mobilization of Latino Voters in the 2000 Presidential Election

verfasst von: Victoria M. DeFrancesco Soto, Jennifer L. Merolla

Erschienen in: Political Behavior | Ausgabe 4/2006

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Abstract

Over the past two presidential elections, the major parties have been making a push at appealing to Latinos, airing over 3000 political advertisements in Spanish in the 2000 presidential election. In this paper, we ask whether the political ads used in the 2000 election had any effect on Latino turnout. We argue that the effectiveness of ads on the likelihood of turnout depends on how targeted the ad is to Latinos and the individual’s process of acculturation. We test our hypotheses using data from the Campaign Media Analysis Group, merged with data from the 2000 National Annenberg Election Survey. We find that the effectiveness of the ads on the likelihood of turnout was mediated by the individual’s dominant language, which is taken as a proxy for the process of acculturation.
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Fußnoten
1
For more details see Freedman, Paul and Ken Goldstein (1999, 1192).
 
2
The data was obtained from a joint project of the Brennan Center for Justice at New York University School of Law and Professor Kenneth Goldstein of the University of Wisconsin-Madison, and included media tracking data from the Campaign Media Analysis Group in Washington, D.C. The Brennan Center-Wisconsin project was sponsored by a grant from the Pew Charitable Trusts. The opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Brennan Center, Professor Goldstein or the Pew Charitable trust.
 
3
We recognize that reported turnout might be biased (Shaw et al., 2000), but the turnout measures were not validated for the Annenberg Election Survey.
 
4
There were 15 unique Target ads, 8 of which dealt exclusively with Latinos. Out of the remaining 7, 5 of the ads had Latinos as part of a crowd, including other minority groups.
 
5
We also logged the ad measures, but this functional transformation did not improve our model.
 
6
While we do not focus on the tone of the ads, we also ran models including measures of positive, negative, and mixed tone ads. None of the measures were significant. We also interacted the tone measures with the language of the respondent, and the inclusion of the interactions did not pass a likelihood ratio test.
 
7
This impacts the interaction terms, which are set at zero for dominant English speakers. For dominant Spanish speakers, we hold language at one, and we simultaneously move the ad portion of the interaction terms and the ad measures.
 
8
Even though it is standard to compute first differences one standard deviation below to one standard deviation above the mean, it is a bit problematic in our case. Given the wide variability of the ads, one standard deviation below the mean results in a negative value for each type of ad.
 
9
In a non-linear model we cannot use an inter-class correlation to determine whether a multi-level model is justified, because the first level is heteroskedastic. As a result, we instead ran an empty hnlm model, where the district level variance component was insignificant.
 
10
We use the raw count of the ad measures. We cannot use the Goldstein and Freedman ad-exposure measures since they are created by multiplying individual and market level data.
 
11
By using group-mean centered independent variables the estimated slopes (B) do not reflect between group differences in the means of those predictors. As a result, any possible contamination from differences in rates of turnout across DMAs on differences in the estimated slopes or average levels of turnout is already controlled for in the modeling structure.
 
12
We should note that the probit results which include Spanish, General, and their interaction with dominant Spanish are consistent with our expectations. In this model, all of the ad measures and interaction terms are significant and in the expected direction.
 
13
We first estimated the residuals from the reduced form equations for the two ad measures. We then included these residuals in the turnout equation. Since the residuals were not significant, we can not reject the null hypothesis of no simultaneity (see Gujarati, 2003, 756).
 
14
We estimated all equations using OLS. The Instrumental Variables 2SLS method is usually preferred even when the dependent variable is dichotomous (see Angrist & Kreuger, 2001; Wooldridge, 2002) since strong specification assumptions are required otherwise. However, the results for all of our probit models are consistent in direction and significance with models estimated by OLS.
 
15
We did verify that the instruments are valid. First, according to Stock and Watson’s rule of thumb (f statistic is greater than 10), we found that our instruments influence X. We then verified that our instruments are uncorrelated with the error from the turnout equation by using an over identification test and could not reject the null hypothesis that the instruments are uncorrelated with the error.
 
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Metadaten
Titel
Vota por tu Futuro: Partisan Mobilization of Latino Voters in the 2000 Presidential Election
verfasst von
Victoria M. DeFrancesco Soto
Jennifer L. Merolla
Publikationsdatum
01.12.2006
Erschienen in
Political Behavior / Ausgabe 4/2006
Print ISSN: 0190-9320
Elektronische ISSN: 1573-6687
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1007/s11109-006-9012-7

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