Introduction
Caveats, Materials, and Methods
History and Trends of the Urban Transition in Nigeria
A Brief History of Nigeria’s Urban System
Nigeria’s Urbanization Curve
Pace and Scale of Nigeria’s Urban Transition
Year | Total population (thousands) | Rural population (thousands) | Urban population (thousands) | Urbanization level (%) |
---|---|---|---|---|
1960 | 45,212 | 38,245 | 6,967 | 15.4 |
1970 | 56,132 | 46,163 | 9,969 | 17.8 |
1980 | 73,698 | 57,507 | 16,191 | 22.0 |
1990 | 95,617 | 67,238 | 28,379 | 29.7 |
2000 | 122,877 | 80,066 | 42,810 | 34.8 |
2010 | 159,708 | 90,267 | 69,441 | 43.5 |
2020 | 210,159 | 101,448 | 108,711 | 51.7 |
2030 | 273,120 | 113,880 | 159,241 | 58.3 |
2040 | 350,720 | 129,896 | 220,824 | 63.0 |
2050 | 440,355 | 144,875 | 295,480 | 67.1 |
Decade | Annual rate of growth of rural population (%) | Speed of urban growth and urbanization | |
---|---|---|---|
Annual rate of growth of urban population (%) | Urban-rural annual growth differentials (%) | ||
1960–1970 | 1.9 | 3.7 | 1.8 |
1970–1980 | 2.2 | 5.0 | 2.8 |
1980–1990 | 1.6 | 5.9 | 4.3 |
1990–2000 | 1.8 | 4.2 | 2.4 |
2000–2010 | 1.3 | 5.0 | 3.7 |
2010–2020 | 1.2 | 4.7 | 3.5 |
2020–2030 | 1.2 | 3.9 | 2.7 |
2030–2040 | 1.3 | 3.3 | 2.0 |
2040–2050 | 1.1 | 3.0 | 1.9 |
The Components of Urban Growth
Natural Population Increase in Urban Areas
Year | Birth rate (per 1000) | Death rate (per 1000) | Rate of natural increase (per 1000) |
---|---|---|---|
1960 | 46.34 | 26.38 | 19.96 |
1970 | 46.32 | 22.81 | 23.51 |
1980 | 46.95 | 19.41 | 27.54 |
1990 | 44.26 | 18.58 | 25.68 |
2000 | 43.15 | 17.89 | 25.26 |
2010 | 41.34 | 14.31 | 27.03 |
Rural to Urban Migration
Reclassification of Rural Areas as Urban
Disaggregating Urbanization into Its Individual Components of Urban Growth
Components | Thousands | Percentage distribution | |||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1960–1970 | 1970–1980 | 1980–1990 | 1990–2000 | 2000–2010 | 1960–1970 | 1970–1980 | 1980–1990 | 1990–2000 | 2000–2010 | 1960–2010 | |
Urban natural increase | 1,678 | 3,132 | 4,902 | 8,188 | 12,932 | 56 | 50 | 40 | 57 | 48 |
50
|
Rural-urban migration | 684 | 1,693 | 4,712 | 4,008 | 11,399 | 23 | 27 | 39 | 28 | 43 |
32
|
Reclassification of rural areas as urban | 639 | 1,398 | 2,574 | 2,236 | 2,301 | 21 | 23 | 21 | 15 | 9 |
18
|
Urban increment | 3,001 | 6,223 | 12,188 | 14,432 | 26,632 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 |
100
|
Discussion
Initial stage (1960–1980) | Accelerated stage (1980–2030) | Terminal stage (2030–2050) | |
---|---|---|---|
Early-accelerated (1980–2010) | Late-accelerated (2010–2030) | ||
Speed/tempo of the urbanization curve | |||
Level of urbanization | |||
15.4–22% (Δ 6.6%) | 22–43.5% (Δ 21.5%) | 43.5–58.3% (Δ 14.8%) | 58.3–67.1% (Δ 8.8%) |
Average urbanization rate | |||
2.3% (moderate) | 3.5% (rapid) | 3.1% (rapid) | 2.0% (moderate) |
Average rural growth rate | |||
2.1% (moderate) | 1.6% (slow) | 1.2% (slow) | 1.2% (slow) |
Average urban growth rate | |||
4.4% (rapid) | 5.0% (rapid) | 4.3% (rapid) | 3.2% (rapid) |
Components of urban growth | |||
Urban natural increase | |||
53% | 48% | n/a | n/a |
Rural to urban migration | |||
25% | 37% | n/a | n/a |
Reclassification | |||
22% | 15% | n/a | n/a |