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Erschienen in:
2014 | OriginalPaper | Buchkapitel
11. Application to a Network of Hospitals at Regional Scale
verfasst von : Alessio Lupoi, Francesco Cavalieri, Paolo Franchin
Erschienen in: SYNER-G: Systemic Seismic Vulnerability and Risk Assessment of Complex Urban, Utility, Lifeline Systems and Critical Facilities
Verlag: Springer Netherlands
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Abstract
The seismic performance of a regional Health-Care System (HCS) is investigated. The earthquake effects both on hospitals and on the Road Network (RDN), connecting towns to hospitals, are evaluated and the interaction among them accounted for. Victims move to hospitals until their request for a bed or for a surgical treatment is satisfied, if possible. A novel “dynamic” model for hospitalization is developed and implemented. The road network is modelled in connectivity terms. The vulnerability of hospitals and bridges is expressed by pre-evaluated fragility curves. Seismic hazard is described by a state-of-the-art model. The reliability problem is solved by Monte Carlo simulation. The un-hospitalized victims, the risk that hospitals are unable to provide medical care, the demand of medical care on hospitals, the hospitalization travel time, are among the useful results of the analysis. The methodology is exemplified with reference to a case-study region, with population of 877,000, 20 towns, 5 hospitals and 32 bridges.