Weitere Artikel dieser Ausgabe durch Wischen aufrufen
Why did the US-China relations take a turn for worse around 2010 despite the bilateral efforts to forge a cooperative framework? Concerned about the danger of conflicts in the course of power transition—namely, the “Thucydides Trap”—in US-China relations, scholars tend to see either a security dilemma at play or an intensification of status competition between an emerging power and the established hegemon. While recognizing the explanatory leverage of the security-dilemma framework and the status-competition model with regard to the continued deterioration of the US-China relations up to Trump, this article asserts that both models fall short in addressing the early origin of the deterioration of US-China relations. The concept “status dilemma” promises to fill the analytic gap thereby left. The status dilemma suggests an inability of two states to grasp the status claims signaled from the other side. Misperceptions associated with status dilemmas fall outside of the purview of the security-dilemma framework, and could lead to the emergence of zero-sum competitions for status. Such misperceptions are apt to occur in a situation of power transition whereby status recognition tends to have geostrategic implications for the great powers involved. This article illustrates this logic of status dilemma via the US-China diplomacy over the “core interests.” This investigation promises crucial insights into the analogy of the Thucydides Trap to US-China relations.
Lieberthal, Kenneth, and Wang Jisi. 2012. Addressing US-China Strategic Distrust. Washington D.C.: John L. Thornton China Center.
Goldstein, Avery. 2013. First things first: The pressing danger of crisis instability in U.S.-China relations. International Security 37 (4): 49–89. CrossRef
Friedberg, Aaron. 2011. A contest for supremacy: China, America, and the struggle for mastery in Asia. New York: WW Norton.
Harding, Harry. 2015. Has U.S. China policy failed? The Washington Quarterly 3: 38.
Mastanduno, Michael. 2014. Order and change in world politics: The financial crisis and the breakdown of the U.S.-Chinai grand bargain. In Power, order, and change in world politics, ed. G. John Ikenberry. New York: Cambridge University Press.
Christensen, Thomas J. 2015. The China Challenge: Shaping the Choices of a Rising Power. New York: WW Norton.
Allison, Graham. 2017. Destined for war? Can America and China escape Thucydides's trap. New York: Houghton Mifflin.
Shambaugh, David. 2013. China Goes global: The partial power. New York: Oxford University Press.
Pu, Xiaoyu. 2017. Rebranding China: Contested status signaling in the changing global order. Stanford: Stanford University Press.
Friedberg, A Contest for Supremacy, 159–163.
Schweller, Randall, and Pu Xiaoyu. 2011. After Unipolarity: China's visions of international order in an era of U.S. decline. International Security 36 (1): 41–72. CrossRef
Ward, Steven. 2017. Status and the challenge of rising powers. New York: Cambridge University Press. CrossRef
Wang, William Z.Y., and Li Wang. 2014. The China Model and the Decline of American Soft Power. In Going Soft? ed. Priscilla Roberts. Hong Kong: Cambridge Scholarly Publishing.
Lieberthal and Wang. Addressing US-China Strategic Distrust.
Goldstein. First things first.
Liff, Adam, and G. John Ikenberry. 2014. Racing toward tragedy? China's Rise, military competition in the Asia Pacific, and the security dilemma. International Security 39 (2).
Wohlforth, William. 2009. Unipolarity, status competition, and great power war. World Politics 61 (1): 28–57. CrossRef
2014. Status Dilemmas and Interstate Conflict. In Status in World Politics, ed. T.V. Paul, Deborah Welch Larson, and William Wohlforth, New York: Cambridge University Press.
Jervis, Robert. 1988. War and misperception. Journal of Interdisciplinary History XVIII (4).
Lebow, Richard Ned. 1984. Between Peace and War: The Nature of International Crisis, Johns Hopkins University Press. Baltimore.
Johnson, Dominic D.P. 2004. Overconfidence and War: The Havoc and Glory of Positive Illusions. Cambridge: Harvard University Press.
Jervis, Robert. 1976. Perception and Misperception in International Politics. Princeton: Princeton University Press.
Allison, Graham. 2017. China vs America: Managing the next clash of civilization. Foreign Affairs 96 (5): 81.
Jervis, War and Misperception. 675.
Christensen, Thomas J. 1996. Useful Adversaries: Grand Strategy, Domestic Mobilization, and Sino-American Conflict, 1947–1958. Princeton: Princeton University Press.
Haas, Mark. 2005. The Ideological Origins of Great Power Politics, 1789–1989. Ithaca: Cornell University Press.
Walt, Stephen. 1996. Revolution and War. Ithaca: Cornell University Press.
Wohlforth. Status Dilemmas and Interstate Conflict. 118–19.
Ward. Status and the Challenge of Rising Powers.
Larson, Deborah Welch, T.V. Paul, and William Wohlforth. 2014. Status and world order. In Status in world politics, ed. T.V. Paul, Deborah Welch Larson, and William Wohlforth, 7. New York: Cambridge University Press.
Stephen Peter Rosen, War and Human Nature (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 2005).
Mercer, Jonathan. 2017. The illusion of international prestige. International Security 41 (4): 133–168. CrossRef
Larson, Paul, and Wohlforth. Status and World Order, 18-19
Larson, Deborah Welch, and Alexei Shevchenko. 2010. Status seekers: Chinese and Russian responses to U.S. primacy. International Security 34 (4): 67. CrossRef
Adler-Nissen, Rebecca. 2014. Stigma Management in International Relations: Transgressive identities, norms, and order in international society. International Organization 68: 143–176. CrossRef
Ward. Status and the Challenge of Rising Powers, 21–23.
Wohlforth. Status Dilemmas and Interstate Conflict, 121–122.
Larson, Deborah Welch. 2015. Will China be a new type of great power? The Chinese Journal of International Politics 4: 8.
Larson and Shevchenko. Status seekers: Chinese and Russian responses to U.S. primacy.
Onea, Tudor A. 2014. Between dominance and decline: Status anxiety and great power rivalry. Review of International Studies 40 (1).
Renshon, Jonathan. 2016. Status deficits and war. International Organization 70: 513–550. CrossRef
Wohlforth. Unipolarity, Status Competition, and Great Power War.
Jacque, Martin. 2009. When China rules the world: The end of the Western world and the birth of a new global order. New York: Penguin.
Halper, Stephan. 2010. The Beijing consensus: Legitimizing authoritarianism in our time. London: Basic Books.
Lin, Justin Yifu. 2011. Demystifying the Chinese economy. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. CrossRef
Mastanduno. Order and Change in World Politics, 175.
Kirshner, Jonathan. 2014. American Power after the Financial Crisis. Ithaca: Cornell University Press.
Mastanduno. Power and Change in World Politics.
Deng, Yong. 2008. China’s struggle for status: The realignment of international relations. New York: Cambridge University Press. CrossRef
Johnston, Alastair Iain. 2008. Social States: China in International Institutions, Princeton University Press, 1980–2000. Princeton.
Copeland, Dale. 2000. The Origins of Major War. Ithaca: Cornell University Press.
Gilpin, Robert. 1981. War and Change in world politics. New York: Cambridge University Press. CrossRef
Hillary Clinton. 2011. America’s Pacific century, Foreign Policy. http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/10/11/americas_paciac_century (Accessed 5 Aug 2018).
Christensen. The China Challenge, 248-49
Silove, Nina. 2016. The pivot before the pivot: U.S. strategy to preserve the power balance in Asia. International Security 40 (4).
Larson, Paul, and Wohlforth. Status and World Order.
U.S. is Back in Asia, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton Declares. The Associated Press, July 21, 2009, http://www.nydailynews.com/news/world/u-s-back-asia-secretary-state-hillary-clinton-declares-article-1.429381 (Accessed 5 Aug 2018).
Leaving for Asia, Clinton Says China is Not an Adversary. The New York Times, October 28, 2010, https://www.nytimes.com/2010/10/29/world/29diplo.html (accessed August 5, 2018).
Clinton, Hillary Rodham. 2015. Hard Choices: A Memoir, 43. New York: Simon and Schuster.
Clinton. Hard Choices, 40.
Bader, Jeffrey. 2012. Obama and China's Rise: An Insider's Account of America's Asia Strategy, 22. Washington D.C.: Brookings Institution Press.
Steinberg, James, and Michael O'Hanlon. 2015. Strategic Reassurance and Resolve: U.S.-China Relations in the Twenty-First Century, 6. Princeton: Princeton University Press. CrossRef
Christensen. The China Challenge, 252–253.
Bader. Obama and China’s Rise, 77.
Swaine, Michael. 2010. Perceptions of an assertive China. China Leadership Monitor (34).
Bingguo, Dai. 2016. Zhanlue duihua [strategic dialogues], 161–162. Beijing: renmin chubanshe.
Jervis, Robert. 1978. Cooperation under the security dilemma. World Politics 30 (02): 167–214. CrossRef
Montgomery, Evan Braden. 2006. Breaking out of the security dilemma: Realism, reassurance, and the problem of uncertainty. International Security 31 (2): 151–185. CrossRef
Glaser, Charles. 2010. Rational Theory of International Politics: The Logic of Competition and Cooperation. Princeton: Princeton University Press. CrossRef
Bader. Obama and China’s Rise, 74–75.
Johnston, Alastair Iain. 2013. How new and assertive is China's new assertiveness? International Security 37 (4): 15–17. CrossRef
Dai. Zhanlue duihua, 160.
Bader. Obama and China’s Rise, 76–77.
Edward Wang. The Chinese military seeks to extend its naval power. The New York Times, April 23, 2010, https://www.nytimes.com/2010/04/24/world/asia/24navy.html (Accessed 5 Aug 2018).
Johnston. How New and Assertive Is China’s New Assertiveness, 17–20.
Johnston. How New and Assertive Is China’s New Assertiveness, 19.
Storey, Ian. 1999. Creeping assertiveness: China, the Philippines and the South China Sea dispute. Contemporary Southeast Asia 21 (1): 95–118. CrossRef
Buszynski, Leszek. 2012. The South China Sea: Oil, maritime claims, and U.S.–China strategic rivalry. The Washington Quarterly 2: 35.
Strategic and Economic Dialogue Opening Session. May 23, 2010, Beijing. https://2009-2017.state.gov/secretary/20092013clinton/rm/2010/05/142134.htm (Accessed 13 Aug).
US-China Strategic and Economic Dialogue 2010 Outcomes of the Strategic Track. May 25, 2010, Washington, D.C. https://2009-2017.state.gov/r/pa/prs/ps/2010/05/142180.htm (Accessed 13 Aug).
Concluding Joint Statements at the US-China Strategic and Economic Dialogue. May 25, 2010, Beijing. https://2009-2017.state.gov/secretary/20092013clinton/rm/2010/05/142207.htm (Accessed 13 Aug).
Offering to Aid Talks, U.S. Challenges China on Disputed Islands. The New York Times, July 23, 2010 https://www.nytimes.com/2010/07/24/world/asia/24diplo.html (Accessed 8 Aug 2018).
Buszynski. The South China Sea: Oil, Maritime Claims, and U.S.–China Strategic Rivalry, 148.
US Takes a Tougher Tone with China. Washington Post, July 30, 2010, http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/07/29/AR2010072906416.html?noredirect=on (Accessed 3 Nov 2018).
Beckley, Michael. 2017. The emerging military balance in East Asia: How China’s neighbors can check Chinese naval expansion. International Security 42 (2): 78–119. CrossRef
Hillary Clinton’s Interview with Greg Sheridan of The Australian, Melbourne, Australia, November 8, 2010 https://2009-2017.state.gov/secretary/20092013clinton/rm/2010/11/150671.htm (Accessed 8 Aug 2018).
Swain. China’s Assertive Behavior, 9.
Liff and Ikenberry. Racing toward Tragedy?. esp. 82–88.
- Destined for Misperception? Status Dilemma and the Early Origin of US-China Antagonism
William Ziyuan Wang
- Springer Netherlands
Journal of Chinese Political Science
Print ISSN: 1080-6954
Elektronische ISSN: 1874-6357
Neuer Inhalt/© Stellmach, Neuer Inhalt/© Maturus, Pluta Logo/© Pluta, digitale Transformation/© Maksym Yemelyanov | Fotolia