The purpose of this article is to present findings about the current situations and changes in the regions that were affected by the 2004 tsunami. By situations and changes we mean (1) the current state of vulnerability of the local population in a respective geographic area with regard to the tsunami; (2) the changes at local and community levels that have taken place after 2004 with respect to vulnerability reduction, disaster preparedness, and resilience building; and (3) the sustainability implications, from today’s perspective, of national and international projects carried out after 2004.
By analyzing current situations of vulnerability and long-term effects of post-disaster measures with a qualitative empirical approach, the aim of this article is to outline recommendations that are relevant to scientific discussions and of interest to practitioners and politicians. For this it is important to take into account the heterogeneous situations in the different regions affected by the 2004 tsunami and to explain why recovery and rehabilitation have been successful in some cases, but not or only partly successful in other cases. Finally, the lessons identified in the 2004 tsunami aftermath and the need for implementation and change according to these lessons are discussed. These are relevant for scientific and practical developments in the future.
2.1 Underlying Conceptual Framework
A range of different concepts and theories constitute the foundation of how risk, vulnerability, sustainability, learning, and resilience are conceptualized and addressed.
The various actors in disaster risk reduction (DRR) define and apply the concept of “risk” differently. Whereas natural science often defines risk as a primarily objective and quantitative concept, social scientists describe risk as a socially or culturally constructed and mediated concept (Kaplan and Garrick
1981; Douglas and Wildavsky
1982; Cogoy
1984; García Acosta
2005; Taylor-Gooby and Zinn
2006; Renn
2008; Egner and Pott
2010; Lupton
2013; Müller-Mahn
2013). So is risk a calculated probability that assists in predicting certain events? Is risk based on people’s subjective perception? Or is risk socially and culturally constructed and negotiated? And what does each perspective mean for effective risk management and disaster risk reduction? In our understanding risk is an interdisciplinary concept that acknowledges the benefits and necessary cases for quantification, but at the same time underlines the integration of individual perception and social construction. Only then is effective disaster risk reduction possible.
The concept of “vulnerability” also encompasses a wide spectrum of possible meanings and implications. Different definitions have been discussed extensively by various authors (for example, Lewis
1999; Bankoff
2001; Few
2003; Adger
2006; Wisner et al.
2012; Birkmann
2013; Kelman et al.
2016; Weichselgartner
2016). In the context of research on disaster risk reduction, Garschagen (
2014) presents an overview of different definitions of vulnerability. The specific concept of vulnerability used in this article is mainly taken from a model that has influenced scientific and practical discourse since its first publication in the book
At Risk (Blaikie et al.
1994; Wisner et al.
2004). The usefulness of this so-called Pressure and Release (PAR) model for analyzing the progression of vulnerability has been widely acknowledged. The model presents vulnerability as a result of unsafe conditions within societies and the ways in which these conditions are produced through root causes such as economic and political circumstances on the one hand and dynamic pressures such as lack of skills or demographic constraints on the other hand (Wisner et al.
2004, p. 50, 52). This article focuses on social vulnerability, which can be defined as the predisposition of society and individuals to be harmed by a stressor or hazard (Wisner et al.
2004). When analyzing social vulnerability, it is essential to review the root causes in society that lead to the development of specific patterns of vulnerability (Wisner et al.
2004). The root causes include, for example, the political and economic contexts of a society. The PAR model provides one possible entry point into a holistic conceptualization of vulnerability and risk and offers the possibility to include economic and political processes at national and international levels into the analysis of vulnerability (Cannon and Müller-Mahn
2010). The PAR model is referred to not only by scientists but also by practitioners, for example, in international organizations for humanitarian aid (IFRC
2006; GCDR
2012; UNOCHA
2013; Morchain and Kelsey
2016). In this line of argumentation, vulnerability is regarded as a subjectively attributed feature of societies that cannot be described by quantitative methods alone, but is rather a highly contextual characteristic that is not readily transferable to other contexts (Kelman et al.
2015).
The concept of “sustainability” has a specific historical development and is used in many different areas ranging from the development of global and national policies to practical local action. With the presentation of the Brundtland Report at the UN General Assembly in 1987, sustainability has become a key paradigm in global politics and has been translated into national and regional politics subsequently (for example, Agenda 21, Rio+ conferences). The report defined sustainable development as “development that meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs” (UNGA
1987, p. 43). Sustainability can be broken down into a social, an economic, and an environmental component (UNGA
2010). The political implications and the analytical setup provided by the sustainability paradigm have had wide influence on science, politics, and economics. Especially in the rise of climate change negotiations and the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, the common goals and tasks of combating climate change and promoting sustainable development have been emphasized (IPCC
2014; UNGA
2015). It was also relevant for the development of the Hyogo Framework for Action (UNISDR
2005) and subsequent frameworks and concepts, linking criteria of sustainability to vulnerability assessment (Birkmann
2013). In this article, post-disaster measures are evaluated with respect to how far these measures have been carried out in a manner that enabled a sustainable reduction of social vulnerability and have had positive long-term effects on society. This article adopts the term sustainability, since it covers more than persistence, long-term effectiveness, or perpetuation of efforts. Sustainability provides specific analytical categories and a paradigmatic orientation that goes beyond disaster thinking and addresses general conditions of societal well-being.
In the context of disaster risk reduction, the concept of “learning” relates to the lessons that have been learned from past disasters and how concepts, strategies, and measures have been adapted (Jasanoff
1994; Kletz
2001; Hoffmann
2008; Egner et al.
2015). It works from the assumption that analyzing positive and negative examples from past events can help in learning and implementing changes for the future. The list of lessons learned reports published by DRR actors on different scales is long (for example, GCDR
2004; Marincioni
2007; Gautam
2010; IFRC
2010; UNISDR
2011) just as the list of conferences that hold lessons learned sessions. It is assumed that mutual learning from disasters is possible and that experience and knowledge from one country could be transferred to another country or global region (UNISDR
2011; Evely et al.
2012; IIED
2013). However, in disaster risk science, it is under controversial discussion why disaster losses continue to mount (White et al.
2001) and why new disasters occur that could have been prevented when so much knowledge is available from past disasters. Recent scientific contributions such as the volume
Learning and Calamities (Egner et al.
2015) emphasize that the logic of learning after a disaster is neither to be taken for granted nor something that historical and current empirical research confirms. The concept of learning in itself has to be deconstructed in order to understand what learning from disasters can mean on a societal level and under what circumstances it might be possible (Egner et al.
2015).
The concept of “resilience” is a buzzword in the field of disaster risk reduction. Although widely used, its meaning and effective application in DRR has been discussed in-depth and critique is growing (Cannon and Müller-Mahn
2010; Pugh
2014; Kelman et al.
2016). As Reghezza-Zitt et al. (
2012, paragraph 2) put it, “the polysemy seems to legitimize a semantic blur that creates theoretical and operational dead ends.” However, we regard resilience as a useful tool in the discussion of disaster risk reduction. But resilience is not just a simple “bouncing back” to the status quo that systems accomplish after certain events, but also comprises a multidimensional “bounce forward” (Manyena
2009, p. 261) that enables learning and transformation. A resilience perspective that links ecosystems with socioeconomic features (Sudmeier-Rieux and Ash
2009) allows the identification of complex interrelations between different systems and the practical strengthening of those linkages identified as important. However, Weichselgartner and Kelman (
2015) accurately observe that while a resilience perspective allows for the identification and perpetuation of desirable dynamics within a system, at the same time it may perpetuate undesirable conditions. We acknowledge this ambiguous character of resilience and the necessity to clearly define the concept and illustrate its limitations.
The review of some of the conceptual perspectives in disaster risk management and risk science reveals the challenges of analyzing the long-term effects of post-disaster measures in a conceptually and practically adequate manner. It is necessary to highlight the subjectivities involved in concepts like risk, vulnerability, and resilience used in DRR measures. Regarding post-disaster measures within the spatial, sociocultural and political contexts in which they occur is a prerequisite for adequate scientific analysis. Furthermore, the long-term perspective is not regarded here as an add-on but as a necessity to adequately address questions of vulnerability and resilience. We agree with Kelman et al. (
2015, p. 23) that research has to analyze “what society has done to itself (and especially what some sectors have done to other sectors) over the long-term […] and how society might change the present state to improve in the future.”
2.2 Methodological Approach
The analysis of the sustainability implications of post-disaster measures following the 2004 tsunami and the state of vulnerability today, as conceptually framed above, is based on empirical data generated through qualitative interviews and a survey linked to an international seminar on “11 Years after the Indian Ocean Tsunami 2004 – Lessons of Disaster Recovery, Rehabilitation and Resilience,” held in Cologne and Bonn, 9–13 November 2015.
1 The seminar was funded by DAAD (Deutscher Akademischer Austausch Dienst/German Academic Exchange Service). Information for our study came from four sources: (1) papers on Tsunami recovery and related DRR measures presented by 19 DAAD alumni and 15 experts (researchers, journalists, and members of humanitarian aid organizations) during the seminar; (2) semi-structured interviews with four alumni; (3) a panel discussion entitled “Evaluation of the effectiveness of recovery and rehabilitation efforts after the tsunami and similar events” held with four invited experts during the seminar; and (4) a survey sent to the alumni, the participating experts, and the broader DRR community one month after the seminar.
The seminar brought together 19 DAAD alumni from eight, mostly tsunami-prone and affected nations (Indonesia, Philippines, Thailand, Myanmar, India, Sri Lanka, Peru, and Uganda), and 15 experts from Germany as well as other European and non-European countries who had been involved in Tsunami recovery and subsequent disaster-related processes as representatives of the science sector, the media or organizations of humanitarian aid or development. The DAAD alumni were selected by a scientific committee based on their scientific and practical expertise in the field of disaster recovery, rehabilitation, and resilience. The selection was based on the committee’s goal to bring together representatives from different research and practical backgrounds and perspectives to foster an in-depth inter- and transdisciplinary exchange. The scientific committee was aware that due to the limited seminar scope it was not possible to include representatives from all relevant scientific disciplines and practical fields.
While many different topics and aspects of disaster recovery, rehabilitation, and resilience were brought up in the discussions, a range of set questions were asked in the four more detailed interviews. An online survey was conducted in December 2015 involving three different groups: (1) the participants of the seminar; (2) the representatives from German national and international organizations who participated in the preparation of and in the seminar; and (3) the broader DRR community accessed through the networks of the organizing institutions. The papers presented by alumni and experts, alumni interviews, expert discussions, and survey results which had 20 respondents only reflect the views of those who actually provided experience and opinions—the accuracy of statements cannot be verified nor can statements be generalized. The views given by the seminar and survey participants may especially reflect the views of elites with access to education; views and experiences of other population groups affected could not be considered.
The empirical findings are analyzed and discussed in the light of selected literature from disaster risk science as well as grey literature reports from humanitarian and other organizations. While a structured analysis of the scientific and grey literature that addresses the sustainability implications of post-disaster measures and current vulnerabilities in the regions affected by the Indian Ocean Tsunami is beyond the scope of this article, selected publications that address shortcomings of post-disaster measures and recommendations are considered. This allows selective insight into the realities 10 years after the tsunami that are observed on the ground in the regions that were affected. This approach does not try to draw simple or uniform conclusions on the lessons identified and learned from post-disaster management following the disastrous 2004 tsunami event. Rather, the selective approach towards qualitative empirical data and literature allows the highlighting of specific vulnerabilities as a result of bottlenecks in post-disaster management and presents a complex and ambiguous picture of relevant structures and processes in disaster risk reduction.