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Erschienen in:
Introduction Kapitel lesen Erstes Kapitel lesen

2016 | OriginalPaper | Buchkapitel

11. Elements of a Guideline for Future Integrated Economic Assessments of the IPCC

verfasst von : Martin Kowarsch

Erschienen in: A Pragmatist Orientation for the Social Sciences in Climate Policy

Verlag: Springer International Publishing

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Abstract

Part IV identifies (in this chapter), and reflects on (in Chap. 12), some elements of a more specific guideline for improving the integrated economic assessments by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). This is based on the preceding analysis of the challenges faced by these assessments (Parts I–III). A short check list for integrated economic assessments summarises the key recommendations (Sect. 11.1). Section 11.2 addresses the question of what information we want the IPCC to provide in its next assessments. The IPCC should map alternative policy pathways and their implications even more comprehensively and specifically. More specific proposals for the appropriate treatment of disputed value judgements and uncertainties in IPCC assessments are given next (Sect. 11.3). It is also argued that the multi-scenario analyses should more explicitly explore disputed ethical viewpoints. Then, potential improvements of the IPCC’s processes, formats and public participation are discussed (Sect. 11.4). Finally, Sect. 11.5 argues that the scientific community could better support the IPCC assessments.

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Vorheriges Kapitel An Evaluation of the IPCC WG III Assessments
Nächstes Kapitel Potential Implications of the IPCC Reform: Deliberative Learning and Difficulties of In-Depth Policy Assessment
Fußnoten
1
A collection of different (governmental and other) proposals for and discussions about the future of the IPCC can be found at http://​www.​ipcc.​ch/​apps/​future/​ (accessed 30 Jun 2015). Literature with proposals for improving (the IPCC) assessments was already listed in Chap. 1.
 
2
If the actual practical consequences of the proposed elements of an IPCC guideline are not desirable, a revision of the guideline will be required (see Sect. 6.​2).
 
3
For instance, in the non-framing chapters of the WG III AR5, there is hardly any reference to framing concepts such as ‘climate justice,’ or to cultural aspects of climate change, which have, however, been highlighted in the WG III AR5 framing sections (e.g. IPCC 2014, Chap. 3). This is among the reasons why the scope of the exploration of alternative policy pathways in the AR5 was still too narrow, despite the promising approach taken there. These thoughts also suggest that there is, or should be, a clear connection between a serious problem framing exercise and the identification of relevant positive or negative implications of policy means for achieving the climate policy goals. In Dewey’s terms, Step 4 of a Deweyan pattern of enquiry is basically adding to or refining the (preliminary) results of Step 2. Including a broad range of policy objectives implies the need to develop appropriate indicators that help to identify and evaluate the direct effects of policy options that are intended to achieve these particular policy objectives.
 
4
The IPCC and the underlying literature have extensively analysed issue linkage regarding the economic costs of climate change mitigation and furthermore energy security. There are, however, also many other policy objectives (e.g., fair distribution of wealth or resources) that must be more thoroughly considered and assessed.
 
5
This has in principle been discussed in economics for a long time, for instance by Ng (1983) who discusses “second-best” welfare economics.
 
6
An example of how this could be done is creating extreme scenarios regarding “system shocks” or non-linear developments, as also argued by Kunreuther et al. (2013) and Weitzman (2009). Following these authors further, the discussion of uncertainty needs to be better integrated into a decision-making framework with a focus on risk management. This would help policymakers to better understand the choices they are facing and the related risks and perils, particularly regarding highly disputed issues. The AR5 provided some information in this regard, but much more analyses of this kind would be needed.
 
7
There is hardly ever a “singular” development of policies. Until the 1970s, it was common (in political science and political practice) to regard a policy process as finalised as soon as there was a decision about a law or regulation. The implementation and practical consequences did not play a considerable role at that time (Blum and Schubert 2009, pp. 122f).
 
8
I have elaborated on how to constructively treat and better integrate ethical viewpoints in scientific assessments in Biewald et al. (2015) and Kowarsch and Edenhofer (2016). One of Dewey’s examples (1927) is the controversy between radical liberalism and communism back then. Instead of endless debates into abstract values, a critical comparison of the complex practical implications of these concepts may lead to the insight that both are undesirable in their extreme variant due to hardly acceptable practical implications for society.
 
9
For a taxonomy of the disagreements in climate policy see Robert and Zeckhauser (2011).
 
10
IPCC assessments can also only examine a limited number of non-climate policy objectives. Maybe the IPCC should focus on those that are most interlinked with climate policy and most relevant for social welfare. For instance, the policy goal of access to affordable energy sources for the very poor – which may perhaps be endangered by too ambitious climate change mitigation policies – may have rather high priority.
 
11
“Narratives are a way of structuring and communicating our understanding of the world. Whereas political narratives are persuasive stories for some political end (e.g., to win an election), a policy narrative has a setting, a plot, characters (hero, villain, and victim), and is disseminated toward a preferred policy outcome (the moral of the story)” (Shanahan et al. 2011).
 
12
Understandable and exciting storylines or narratives are required to achieve high political impact of integrated economic assessments. See, e.g., the success of the Stern Review or the “Copenhagen Consensus” (Lomborg 2007) with their respective clear-cut and exciting narratives. See Sect. 7.​1.​2 for existing alternative approaches to climate economics problem framing.
 
13
Uncertainties directly explored in multi-scenario analyses may be technical or methodological uncertainty (see Sect. 9.​1). Both kinds of uncertainties can occur concerning natural systems (climate sensitivity, etc.), socio-economic trends and circumstances (economic growth, etc.), technologies and political issues. One could even think of alternative scenarios concerning different epistemological viewpoints and their implications for climate policy scenarios, which is certainly an exciting philosophical project. But, this might be too ambitious for an IPCC assessment, for which it would be sufficient to point out the existence of such epistemological challenges and uncertainties. It could, however, be an interesting research project for the philosophical community.
 
14
While the inclusion of a higher diversity of authors both in terms of disciplines and regions is desirable in principle, IPCC author teams could also be set up more functionally regarding their expertise (Victor 2015). Perhaps the only way of overcoming the old tension between scientific excellence and regional representation is long-term capacity building, which however seems to go beyond the IPCC’s mandate and (financial) capacities. In any case, the transparency of author affiliations and where their incomes come from is useful for the legitimacy of an assessment.
 
15
Dewey did not regard specific institutional reforms at a specific point in time as absolutely crucial (Dewey 1927, p. 68), also because undesirable attitudes etc. of people would often remain nonetheless. Institutional arrangements must constantly change in his view since the “problematic situations” are continuously changing (Sect. 6.​2). This does not mean, however, that he was not interested in particular institutional arrangements. For instance, he was calling for experimenting regarding social structures, conditions and institutions “of debate, discussion and persuasion. That is the problem of the public” (Dewey 1927, p. 208).
 
16
See, e.g., Beck (2009), IAC (2010), Edenhofer (2014), and Carraro et al. (2015a, b). For a discussion on procedural aspects at the science-policy interface in general, see, e.g., Farrell and Jäger (2006), Renn (2009), Lentsch and Weingart (2011), OECD (2015) and Jasanoff (1990).
 
17
More responses to the challenge of lacking support by governments and stakeholders for the full exploration of the solution space, including its normative dimensions, are given in Chap. 12.
 
18
This would also provide additional incentives for excellent scholars to contribute to the laborious assessment processes.
 
19
Such additional regionalised assessments would make the inclusion of stakeholders and the public easier, and it might help improve communication of the assessment results as their presentation could be specially tailored to the respective target audiences in a particular region. It would also be easier to access local knowledge then.
 
20
See projects like the one described at http://​environment.​yale.​edu/​seeforyourself/​, or the decision theatre in Arizona at http://​dt.​asu.​edu/​about/​vision (all links accessed 30 Jul 2015), or projects concerning “e-governance.” See also the UNEP live project mentioned further below.
 
21
See also Carraro et al. (2015b). Interestingly, mitigation and adaptation were combined in the SAR (WG II: “Impacts, Adaptations and Mitigation of Climate Change: Scientific-Technical Analyses,” WG III: “Economic and Social Dimensions of Climate Change”), but due to many overlaps between the WGs, this was changed in later IPCC ARs (Beck 2009, p. 141).
 
22
Strict regulations to counter severe and democratically undesirable conflicts of interest are required, and the existing IPCC rules should be improved in this regard (Edenhofer 2011). It is, however, impossible to completely avoid interest-guided or value-guided work by scientists, as they will always be influenced by their values, beliefs, interests and circumstances (see Chap. 5).
 
23
Furthermore, I want to at least mention the issue that – if the IPCC and perhaps also other assessments actually address a broader range of policy objectives under the sustainable development framework – there seems to be a convergence of the scope of existing larger-scale scientific assessments. Consequently, an appropriate coordination between the various, resource-intensive assessments out there is definitely required to avoid duplication and unproductive competition.
 
24
See, e.g., Renn (2009) and Goodin (2008) for how to possibly realise public participation and deliberation more generally. This should include intercultural dialogue.
 
25
See, e.g., Petersen et al. (2015) for the IPCC. See also UNEP’s activities to establish an internet platform called UNEP live (see http://​www.​uneplive.​org, accessed 30 Jul 2015); this platform serves several purposes.
 
28
See Sect. 7.​4 for additional ideas. Further hypotheses include that numerical models can perhaps cover more complex issues than analytical models, and that particularly the macroeconomic component of climate economics requires further development.
 
29
For additional interesting proposals of what the IAM community could do, see Knutti (2010) and Ravetz (1997).
 
30
“By the very nature of scientific practice, scientists utilizing the same cognitive perspective in a field come to see themselves as a group with group interests. If relatively strong in number, such a group may become inclined to promote itself by discouraging or even stopping empirical inquiry in its field from cognitive perspectives, especially promising ones, other than its own. Such a state of affairs constitutes a degenerate empiricism, as it wishes to limit inquiry to a single vantage point, thereby holding back the advancement of knowledge” (Fullbrook 2009, pp. 123f).
 
31
See already Dewey (1927) where he complains about the existing preference of theoretical science over applied science by building on a misled philosophy of science.
 
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Metadaten
Titel
Elements of a Guideline for Future Integrated Economic Assessments of the IPCC
verfasst von
Martin Kowarsch
Copyright-Jahr
2016
Buch
A Pragmatist Orientation for the Social Sciences in Climate Policy

Print ISBN: 978-3-319-43279-3

Electronic ISBN: 978-3-319-43281-6

Copyright-Jahr: 2016

DOI
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-43281-6_11