Skip to main content
Erschienen in: Structural and Multidisciplinary Optimization 1/2023

01.01.2023 | Research Paper

Simultaneous reliability and reliability-sensitivity analyses based on the information-reuse of sparse grid numerical integration

verfasst von: Jun Xu, Limin Hao, Jian-feng Mao, Zhi-wu Yu

Erschienen in: Structural and Multidisciplinary Optimization | Ausgabe 1/2023

Einloggen

Aktivieren Sie unsere intelligente Suche, um passende Fachinhalte oder Patente zu finden.

search-config
loading …

Abstract

In this paper, a new method is put forward for simultaneous reliability and reliability-sensitivity analyses based on the information-reuse of sparse grid numerical integration (SGNI). First, the reliability analysis is conducted on the basis of fractional exponential moments-based maximum entropy method (FEM-MEM), where the SGNI is employed for FEM assessments. The reliability index can be evaluated by integrating over the distribution derived by FEM-MEM. Then, the reliability-sensitivity analysis is carried out by reusing the output samples in previous reliability analysis and updating the corresponding weights, where no additional model evaluations are required. Then, the FEM-MEM is applied again to derive the conditional distribution and reliability index. By comparing the conditional and original reliability indexes, one can define the reliability-sensitivity index to identify the importance of each random variable to reliability. Since only one-round of model evaluations are necessary in the proposed method, the computational efficiency is highly desirable. Four numerical examples are investigated to check the effectiveness of the proposed method, where pertinent results obtained from Monte Carlo simulations (MCS) and Sobol’s index are compared. The results demonstrate the proposed method is accurate and efficient for simultaneous reliability and reliability-sensitivity analyses.

Sie haben noch keine Lizenz? Dann Informieren Sie sich jetzt über unsere Produkte:

Springer Professional "Wirtschaft+Technik"

Online-Abonnement

Mit Springer Professional "Wirtschaft+Technik" erhalten Sie Zugriff auf:

  • über 102.000 Bücher
  • über 537 Zeitschriften

aus folgenden Fachgebieten:

  • Automobil + Motoren
  • Bauwesen + Immobilien
  • Business IT + Informatik
  • Elektrotechnik + Elektronik
  • Energie + Nachhaltigkeit
  • Finance + Banking
  • Management + Führung
  • Marketing + Vertrieb
  • Maschinenbau + Werkstoffe
  • Versicherung + Risiko

Jetzt Wissensvorsprung sichern!

Springer Professional "Technik"

Online-Abonnement

Mit Springer Professional "Technik" erhalten Sie Zugriff auf:

  • über 67.000 Bücher
  • über 390 Zeitschriften

aus folgenden Fachgebieten:

  • Automobil + Motoren
  • Bauwesen + Immobilien
  • Business IT + Informatik
  • Elektrotechnik + Elektronik
  • Energie + Nachhaltigkeit
  • Maschinenbau + Werkstoffe




 

Jetzt Wissensvorsprung sichern!

Anhänge
Nur mit Berechtigung zugänglich
Literatur
Zurück zum Zitat Au S-K, Beck JL (2001) Estimation of small failure probabilities in high dimensions by subset simulation. Probab Eng Mech 16(4):263–277CrossRef Au S-K, Beck JL (2001) Estimation of small failure probabilities in high dimensions by subset simulation. Probab Eng Mech 16(4):263–277CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Blatman G, Sudret B (2011) Adaptive sparse polynomial chaos expansion based on least angle regression. J Comput Phys 230(6):2345–2367CrossRefMATH Blatman G, Sudret B (2011) Adaptive sparse polynomial chaos expansion based on least angle regression. J Comput Phys 230(6):2345–2367CrossRefMATH
Zurück zum Zitat Borgonovo E, Plischke E (2016) Sensitivity analysis: a review of recent advances. Eur J Oper Res 248(3):869–887CrossRefMATH Borgonovo E, Plischke E (2016) Sensitivity analysis: a review of recent advances. Eur J Oper Res 248(3):869–887CrossRefMATH
Zurück zum Zitat Ditlevsen O, Madsen HO (1996) Structural reliability methods, vol 178. Wiley, New York Ditlevsen O, Madsen HO (1996) Structural reliability methods, vol 178. Wiley, New York
Zurück zum Zitat Dwight RP, Desmedt SG, Omrani PS (2016) Sobol indices for dimension adaptivity in sparse grids. In: Simulation-Driven Modeling and Optimization, Springer, pp 371–395 Dwight RP, Desmedt SG, Omrani PS (2016) Sobol indices for dimension adaptivity in sparse grids. In: Simulation-Driven Modeling and Optimization, Springer, pp 371–395
Zurück zum Zitat Echard B, Gayton N, Lemaire M (2011) Ak-mcs: an active learning reliability method combining kriging and monte carlo simulation. Struct Saf 33(2):145–154CrossRef Echard B, Gayton N, Lemaire M (2011) Ak-mcs: an active learning reliability method combining kriging and monte carlo simulation. Struct Saf 33(2):145–154CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Engelund S, Rackwitz R (1993) A benchmark study on importance sampling techniques in structural reliability. Struct Saf 12(4):255–276CrossRef Engelund S, Rackwitz R (1993) A benchmark study on importance sampling techniques in structural reliability. Struct Saf 12(4):255–276CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Fallahi N (2021) Ga optimization of variable angle tow composites in buckling and free vibration analysis through layerwise theory. Aerospace 8(12):376CrossRef Fallahi N (2021) Ga optimization of variable angle tow composites in buckling and free vibration analysis through layerwise theory. Aerospace 8(12):376CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Forooghi A, Fallahi N, Alibeigloo A, Forooghi H, Rezaey S (2022) Static and thermal instability analysis of embedded functionally graded carbon nanotube-reinforced composite plates based on hsdt via gdqm and validated modeling by neural network, Mechanics Based Design of Structures and Machines pp 1–34 Forooghi A, Fallahi N, Alibeigloo A, Forooghi H, Rezaey S (2022) Static and thermal instability analysis of embedded functionally graded carbon nanotube-reinforced composite plates based on hsdt via gdqm and validated modeling by neural network, Mechanics Based Design of Structures and Machines pp 1–34
Zurück zum Zitat Gasanov M, Petrovskaia A, Nikitin A, Matveev S, Tregubova P, Pukalchik M, Oseledets I (2020) Sensitivity analysis of soil parameters in crop model supported with high-throughput computing. In: International Conference on Computational Science, Springer, pp 731–741 Gasanov M, Petrovskaia A, Nikitin A, Matveev S, Tregubova P, Pukalchik M, Oseledets I (2020) Sensitivity analysis of soil parameters in crop model supported with high-throughput computing. In: International Conference on Computational Science, Springer, pp 731–741
Zurück zum Zitat Giap GE, Kosuke N (2014) Sensitivity analysis using Sobol ‘variance-based method on the Haverkamp constitutive functions implemented in richards’ water flow equation, Malaysian. J Soil Sci 18:19–33 Giap GE, Kosuke N (2014) Sensitivity analysis using Sobol ‘variance-based method on the Haverkamp constitutive functions implemented in richards’ water flow equation, Malaysian. J Soil Sci 18:19–33
Zurück zum Zitat Gramacy RB, Taddy M (2009) Categorical inputs, sensitivity analysis, optimization and importance tempering with tgp version 2, an r package for treed gaussian process models, University of Cambridge Statistical Laboratory Tech. Rep Gramacy RB, Taddy M (2009) Categorical inputs, sensitivity analysis, optimization and importance tempering with tgp version 2, an r package for treed gaussian process models, University of Cambridge Statistical Laboratory Tech. Rep
Zurück zum Zitat Haldar A, Mahadevan S (1995) First-order and second-order reliability methods. In: Probabilistic structural mechanics handbook, Springer, pp 27–52 Haldar A, Mahadevan S (1995) First-order and second-order reliability methods. In: Probabilistic structural mechanics handbook, Springer, pp 27–52
Zurück zum Zitat Hastie T, Tibshirani R, Friedman JH, Friedman JH (2009) The elements of statistical learning: data mining, inference, and prediction, vol 2. Springer, New YorkCrossRefMATH Hastie T, Tibshirani R, Friedman JH, Friedman JH (2009) The elements of statistical learning: data mining, inference, and prediction, vol 2. Springer, New YorkCrossRefMATH
Zurück zum Zitat He J, Gao S, Gong J (2014) A sparse grid stochastic collocation method for structural reliability analysis. Struct Saf 51:29–34CrossRef He J, Gao S, Gong J (2014) A sparse grid stochastic collocation method for structural reliability analysis. Struct Saf 51:29–34CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat He W, Zeng Y, Li G (2019) A novel structural reliability analysis method via improved maximum entropy method based on nonlinear mapping and sparse grid numerical integration. Mech Syst Signal Process 133:106247CrossRef He W, Zeng Y, Li G (2019) A novel structural reliability analysis method via improved maximum entropy method based on nonlinear mapping and sparse grid numerical integration. Mech Syst Signal Process 133:106247CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat He S, Xu J, Zhang Y (2022) Reliability computation via a transformed mixed-degree cubature rule and maximum entropy. Appl Math Modell 104:122–139CrossRefMATH He S, Xu J, Zhang Y (2022) Reliability computation via a transformed mixed-degree cubature rule and maximum entropy. Appl Math Modell 104:122–139CrossRefMATH
Zurück zum Zitat Heiss F, Winschel V (2008) Likelihood approximation by numerical integration on sparse grids. J Econom 144(1):62–80CrossRefMATH Heiss F, Winschel V (2008) Likelihood approximation by numerical integration on sparse grids. J Econom 144(1):62–80CrossRefMATH
Zurück zum Zitat Helton JC, Johnson JD, Sallaberry CJ, Storlie CB (2006) Survey of sampling-based methods for uncertainty and sensitivity analysis. Reliab Eng Syst Saf 91(10–11):1175–1209CrossRef Helton JC, Johnson JD, Sallaberry CJ, Storlie CB (2006) Survey of sampling-based methods for uncertainty and sensitivity analysis. Reliab Eng Syst Saf 91(10–11):1175–1209CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Heo Y, Choudhary R, Augenbroe G (2012) Calibration of building energy models for retrofit analysis under uncertainty. Energy Build 47:550–560CrossRef Heo Y, Choudhary R, Augenbroe G (2012) Calibration of building energy models for retrofit analysis under uncertainty. Energy Build 47:550–560CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Hygh JS, DeCarolis JF, Hill DB, Ranjithan SR (2012) Multivariate regression as an energy assessment tool in early building design. Build Environ 57:165–175CrossRef Hygh JS, DeCarolis JF, Hill DB, Ranjithan SR (2012) Multivariate regression as an energy assessment tool in early building design. Build Environ 57:165–175CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Iooss B, Lemaître P (2015) A review on global sensitivity analysis methods, In: Uncertainty management in simulation-optimization of complex systems, Springer, pp 101–122 Iooss B, Lemaître P (2015) A review on global sensitivity analysis methods, In: Uncertainty management in simulation-optimization of complex systems, Springer, pp 101–122
Zurück zum Zitat Li L, Lu Z (2017) Variance-based sensitivity analysis for models with correlated inputs and its state dependent parameter solution. Struct Multidisc Optim 56(4):919–937CrossRef Li L, Lu Z (2017) Variance-based sensitivity analysis for models with correlated inputs and its state dependent parameter solution. Struct Multidisc Optim 56(4):919–937CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Li H, Lü Z, Yuan X (2008) Nataf transformation based point estimate method. Chin Sci Bull 53(17):2586–2592 Li H, Lü Z, Yuan X (2008) Nataf transformation based point estimate method. Chin Sci Bull 53(17):2586–2592
Zurück zum Zitat Li G, He W, Zeng Y (2019) An improved maximum entropy method via fractional moments with laplace transform for reliability analysis. Struct Multidisc Optim 59(4):1301–1320CrossRef Li G, He W, Zeng Y (2019) An improved maximum entropy method via fractional moments with laplace transform for reliability analysis. Struct Multidisc Optim 59(4):1301–1320CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Mooney CZ (1997) Monte carlo simulation, no. 116, Sage Mooney CZ (1997) Monte carlo simulation, no. 116, Sage
Zurück zum Zitat Oakley JE, O’Hagan A (2004) Probabilistic sensitivity analysis of complex models: a Bayesian approach. J R Stat Soc Ser B 66(3):751–769CrossRefMATH Oakley JE, O’Hagan A (2004) Probabilistic sensitivity analysis of complex models: a Bayesian approach. J R Stat Soc Ser B 66(3):751–769CrossRefMATH
Zurück zum Zitat Petras K (2001) Fast calculation of coefficients in the Smolyak algorithm. Numer Algorithms 26(2):93–109CrossRefMATH Petras K (2001) Fast calculation of coefficients in the Smolyak algorithm. Numer Algorithms 26(2):93–109CrossRefMATH
Zurück zum Zitat Rakovec O, Hill MC, Clark M, Weerts A, Teuling A, Uijlenhoet R (2014) Distributed evaluation of local sensitivity analysis (delsa), with application to hydrologic models. Water Resour Res 50(1):409–426CrossRef Rakovec O, Hill MC, Clark M, Weerts A, Teuling A, Uijlenhoet R (2014) Distributed evaluation of local sensitivity analysis (delsa), with application to hydrologic models. Water Resour Res 50(1):409–426CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Saltelli A, Tarantola S, Campolongo F, Ratto M (2004) Sensitivity analysis in practice: a guide to assessing scientific models, vol 1. Wiley, New YorkMATH Saltelli A, Tarantola S, Campolongo F, Ratto M (2004) Sensitivity analysis in practice: a guide to assessing scientific models, vol 1. Wiley, New YorkMATH
Zurück zum Zitat Saltelli A, Ratto M, Tarantola S, Campolongo F (2005) Sensitivity analysis for chemical models. Chem Rev 105(7):2811–2828CrossRefMATH Saltelli A, Ratto M, Tarantola S, Campolongo F (2005) Sensitivity analysis for chemical models. Chem Rev 105(7):2811–2828CrossRefMATH
Zurück zum Zitat Tian W (2013) A review of sensitivity analysis methods in building energy analysis. Renew Sustain Energy Rev 20:411–419CrossRef Tian W (2013) A review of sensitivity analysis methods in building energy analysis. Renew Sustain Energy Rev 20:411–419CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Wang L, Li G, Lu Z, Feng K (2021) Local sensitivity analysis of failure possibility and its universal solution by fuzzy simulation. Struct Multidisc Optim 64(1):219–238CrossRef Wang L, Li G, Lu Z, Feng K (2021) Local sensitivity analysis of failure possibility and its universal solution by fuzzy simulation. Struct Multidisc Optim 64(1):219–238CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Wei P, Lu Z, Song J (2015) Variable importance analysis: a comprehensive review. Reliab Eng Syst Saf 142:399–432CrossRef Wei P, Lu Z, Song J (2015) Variable importance analysis: a comprehensive review. Reliab Eng Syst Saf 142:399–432CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Xiao N-C, Huang H-Z, Wang Z, Pang Y, He L (2011) Reliability sensitivity analysis for structural systems in interval probability form. Struct Multidisc Optim 44(5):691–705CrossRefMATH Xiao N-C, Huang H-Z, Wang Z, Pang Y, He L (2011) Reliability sensitivity analysis for structural systems in interval probability form. Struct Multidisc Optim 44(5):691–705CrossRefMATH
Zurück zum Zitat Xiong F, Xiong Y, Greene S, Chen W, Yang S (2009) A new sparse grid based method for uncertainty propagation. In: International Design Engineering Technical Conferences and Computers and Information in Engineering Conference, vol 49026, pp 1205–1215 Xiong F, Xiong Y, Greene S, Chen W, Yang S (2009) A new sparse grid based method for uncertainty propagation. In: International Design Engineering Technical Conferences and Computers and Information in Engineering Conference, vol 49026, pp 1205–1215
Zurück zum Zitat Xu J (2016) A new method for reliability assessment of structural dynamic systems with random parameters. Struct Saf 60:130–143CrossRef Xu J (2016) A new method for reliability assessment of structural dynamic systems with random parameters. Struct Saf 60:130–143CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Xu J, Dang C (2019) A novel fractional moments-based maximum entropy method for high-dimensional reliability analysis. Appl Math Modell 75:749–768CrossRefMATH Xu J, Dang C (2019) A novel fractional moments-based maximum entropy method for high-dimensional reliability analysis. Appl Math Modell 75:749–768CrossRefMATH
Zurück zum Zitat Xu J, Dang C (2019) A new bivariate dimension reduction method for efficient structural reliability analysis. Mech Syst Signal Process 115:281–300CrossRef Xu J, Dang C (2019) A new bivariate dimension reduction method for efficient structural reliability analysis. Mech Syst Signal Process 115:281–300CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Xu J, Kong F (2019) Adaptive scaled unscented transformation for highly efficient structural reliability analysis by maximum entropy method. Struct Saf 76:123–134CrossRef Xu J, Kong F (2019) Adaptive scaled unscented transformation for highly efficient structural reliability analysis by maximum entropy method. Struct Saf 76:123–134CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Xu J, Dang C, Kong F (2017) Efficient reliability analysis of structures with the rotational quasi-symmetric point-and the maximum entropy methods. Mech Syst Signal Process 95:58–76CrossRef Xu J, Dang C, Kong F (2017) Efficient reliability analysis of structures with the rotational quasi-symmetric point-and the maximum entropy methods. Mech Syst Signal Process 95:58–76CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Xu J, Du Y, Zhou L (2021) A multi-fidelity integration rule for statistical moments and failure probability evaluations. Struct Multidisc Optim 64(3):1305–1326CrossRef Xu J, Du Y, Zhou L (2021) A multi-fidelity integration rule for statistical moments and failure probability evaluations. Struct Multidisc Optim 64(3):1305–1326CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Yang H, Hong SH, Wang Y (2022) A sequential multi-fidelity surrogate-based optimization methodology based on expected improvement reduction. Struct Multidisc Optim 65(5):1–17CrossRef Yang H, Hong SH, Wang Y (2022) A sequential multi-fidelity surrogate-based optimization methodology based on expected improvement reduction. Struct Multidisc Optim 65(5):1–17CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Zhan Y, Zhang M (2013) Application of a combined sensitivity analysis approach on a pesticide environmental risk indicator. Environ Modell Softw 49:129–140CrossRef Zhan Y, Zhang M (2013) Application of a combined sensitivity analysis approach on a pesticide environmental risk indicator. Environ Modell Softw 49:129–140CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Zhang Y, Xu J (2021) Efficient reliability analysis with a cda-based dimension-reduction model and polynomial chaos expansion. Comput Methods Appl Mech Eng 373:113467CrossRefMATH Zhang Y, Xu J (2021) Efficient reliability analysis with a cda-based dimension-reduction model and polynomial chaos expansion. Comput Methods Appl Mech Eng 373:113467CrossRefMATH
Zurück zum Zitat Zhao Y-G, Ono T (2001) Moment methods for structural reliability. Struct saf 23(1):47–75CrossRef Zhao Y-G, Ono T (2001) Moment methods for structural reliability. Struct saf 23(1):47–75CrossRef
Metadaten
Titel
Simultaneous reliability and reliability-sensitivity analyses based on the information-reuse of sparse grid numerical integration
verfasst von
Jun Xu
Limin Hao
Jian-feng Mao
Zhi-wu Yu
Publikationsdatum
01.01.2023
Verlag
Springer Berlin Heidelberg
Erschienen in
Structural and Multidisciplinary Optimization / Ausgabe 1/2023
Print ISSN: 1615-147X
Elektronische ISSN: 1615-1488
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00158-022-03444-1

Weitere Artikel der Ausgabe 1/2023

Structural and Multidisciplinary Optimization 1/2023 Zur Ausgabe

    Marktübersichten

    Die im Laufe eines Jahres in der „adhäsion“ veröffentlichten Marktübersichten helfen Anwendern verschiedenster Branchen, sich einen gezielten Überblick über Lieferantenangebote zu verschaffen.