Skip to main content
Erschienen in: Marketing Letters 3-4/2008

01.12.2008

Risk, uncertainty and discrete choice models

verfasst von: Andre de Palma, Moshe Ben-Akiva, David Brownstone, Charles Holt, Thierry Magnac, Daniel McFadden, Peter Moffatt, Nathalie Picard, Kenneth Train, Peter Wakker, Joan Walker

Erschienen in: Marketing Letters | Ausgabe 3-4/2008

Einloggen

Aktivieren Sie unsere intelligente Suche, um passende Fachinhalte oder Patente zu finden.

search-config
loading …

Abstract

This paper examines the cross-fertilizations of random utility models with the study of decision making under risk and uncertainty. We start with a description of the expected utility (EU) theory and then consider deviations from the standard EU frameworks, involving the Allais paradox and the Ellsberg paradox, inter alia. We then discuss how the resulting non-EU framework can be modeled and estimated within the framework of discrete choices in static and dynamic contexts. Our objectives in addressing risk and ambiguity in individual choice contexts are to understand the decision choice process and to use behavioral information for prediction, prescription, and policy analysis.

Sie haben noch keine Lizenz? Dann Informieren Sie sich jetzt über unsere Produkte:

Springer Professional "Wirtschaft+Technik"

Online-Abonnement

Mit Springer Professional "Wirtschaft+Technik" erhalten Sie Zugriff auf:

  • über 102.000 Bücher
  • über 537 Zeitschriften

aus folgenden Fachgebieten:

  • Automobil + Motoren
  • Bauwesen + Immobilien
  • Business IT + Informatik
  • Elektrotechnik + Elektronik
  • Energie + Nachhaltigkeit
  • Finance + Banking
  • Management + Führung
  • Marketing + Vertrieb
  • Maschinenbau + Werkstoffe
  • Versicherung + Risiko

Jetzt Wissensvorsprung sichern!

Springer Professional "Wirtschaft"

Online-Abonnement

Mit Springer Professional "Wirtschaft" erhalten Sie Zugriff auf:

  • über 67.000 Bücher
  • über 340 Zeitschriften

aus folgenden Fachgebieten:

  • Bauwesen + Immobilien
  • Business IT + Informatik
  • Finance + Banking
  • Management + Führung
  • Marketing + Vertrieb
  • Versicherung + Risiko




Jetzt Wissensvorsprung sichern!

Literatur
Zurück zum Zitat Ackerberg, D., Benkard, L., Berry, S., & Pakes, A. (2007). Econometric tools for analyzing market outcomes. In J. J. Heckman, & E. Leamer (Eds.), Handbook of econometrics(vol. 6). Amsterdam: Elsevier. Ackerberg, D., Benkard, L., Berry, S., & Pakes, A. (2007). Econometric tools for analyzing market outcomes. In J. J. Heckman, & E. Leamer (Eds.), Handbook of econometrics(vol. 6). Amsterdam: Elsevier.
Zurück zum Zitat Avineri, E., & Prashker, J. N. (2005). Sensitivity to travel time variability: Travelers’ learning perspective. Transportation Research Part C: Emerging Technologies, 13(2), 157–183.CrossRef Avineri, E., & Prashker, J. N. (2005). Sensitivity to travel time variability: Travelers’ learning perspective. Transportation Research Part C: Emerging Technologies, 13(2), 157–183.CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Benitez-Silva, H., & Dwyer, D. (2005). The rationality of retirement expectations and the role of new information. Review of Economics and Statistics, 87, 587–592.CrossRef Benitez-Silva, H., & Dwyer, D. (2005). The rationality of retirement expectations and the role of new information. Review of Economics and Statistics, 87, 587–592.CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Brownstone, D., & Small, K. A. (2005). Valuing time and reliability: Assessing the evidence from road pricing demonstrations. Transportation Research A, 39, 279–293. Brownstone, D., & Small, K. A. (2005). Valuing time and reliability: Assessing the evidence from road pricing demonstrations. Transportation Research A, 39, 279–293.
Zurück zum Zitat Chamberlain, G. (1984). Panel data. In Z. Griliches, & M. Intriligator (Eds.), Handbook of econometrics (vol. 2, (pp. 1247–1318)). Amsterdam: Elsevier. Chamberlain, G. (1984). Panel data. In Z. Griliches, & M. Intriligator (Eds.), Handbook of econometrics (vol. 2, (pp. 1247–1318)). Amsterdam: Elsevier.
Zurück zum Zitat Chateauneuf, A., Eichberger, J., & Grant, S. (2007). Choice under uncertainty with the best and worst in mind: Neo-additive capacities. Journal of Economic Theory, 137(1), 538–567.CrossRef Chateauneuf, A., Eichberger, J., & Grant, S. (2007). Choice under uncertainty with the best and worst in mind: Neo-additive capacities. Journal of Economic Theory, 137(1), 538–567.CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Conte, A., Hey, J. D., & Moffatt, P. G. (2008). Mixture models of choice under risk. Journal of Econometrics, in press. Conte, A., Hey, J. D., & Moffatt, P. G. (2008). Mixture models of choice under risk. Journal of Econometrics, in press.
Zurück zum Zitat de Palma, A., & Picard, N. (2006). Equilibria and information provision in risky networks with risk averse drivers. Transportation Science, 40(4), 393–408.CrossRef de Palma, A., & Picard, N. (2006). Equilibria and information provision in risky networks with risk averse drivers. Transportation Science, 40(4), 393–408.CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat de Palma, A., & Picard, N. (2005). Route choice decision under travel time uncertainty. Transportation Research Part A, 39(4), 295–324. de Palma, A., & Picard, N. (2005). Route choice decision under travel time uncertainty. Transportation Research Part A, 39(4), 295–324.
Zurück zum Zitat Dubé, J. P., Chintagunta, P. K., Petrin, A., Bronnenberg, B., Goettler, R., Seetharaman, P. B., et al. (2002). Structural applications of the discrete choice model. Marketing Letters, 13, 207–220.CrossRef Dubé, J. P., Chintagunta, P. K., Petrin, A., Bronnenberg, B., Goettler, R., Seetharaman, P. B., et al. (2002). Structural applications of the discrete choice model. Marketing Letters, 13, 207–220.CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Dubé, J. P., Sudhir, K., Ching, A., Crawford, G. S., Draganska, M., Fox, J. T., et al. (2005). Recent advances in structural econometric modeling: Dynamics, product positioning and entry. Marketing Letters, 16, 209–224.CrossRef Dubé, J. P., Sudhir, K., Ching, A., Crawford, G. S., Draganska, M., Fox, J. T., et al. (2005). Recent advances in structural econometric modeling: Dynamics, product positioning and entry. Marketing Letters, 16, 209–224.CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Gilboa, I., & Schmeidler, D. (1989). Maxmin expected utility with a non-unique prior. Journal of Mathematical Economics, 18, 141-153.CrossRef Gilboa, I., & Schmeidler, D. (1989). Maxmin expected utility with a non-unique prior. Journal of Mathematical Economics, 18, 141-153.CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Grether, D. M., & Plott, C. R. (1979). Economic theory of choice and the preference reversal phenomenon. American Economic Review, 69, 623–638. Grether, D. M., & Plott, C. R. (1979). Economic theory of choice and the preference reversal phenomenon. American Economic Review, 69, 623–638.
Zurück zum Zitat Heckman, J. J., & Navarro, S. (2007). Dynamic discrete choice and dynamic treatment effects. Journal of Econometrics, 136, 341–396.CrossRef Heckman, J. J., & Navarro, S. (2007). Dynamic discrete choice and dynamic treatment effects. Journal of Econometrics, 136, 341–396.CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Hey, J. D., & Orme, C. D. (1994). Investigating generalisations of expected utility theory using experimental data. Econometrica, 62, 1291–1326.CrossRef Hey, J. D., & Orme, C. D. (1994). Investigating generalisations of expected utility theory using experimental data. Econometrica, 62, 1291–1326.CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Holt, C. A. (2006). Markets, games, and strategic behavior. Boston: Addison-Wesley. Holt, C. A. (2006). Markets, games, and strategic behavior. Boston: Addison-Wesley.
Zurück zum Zitat Holt, C. A., & Laury, S. K. (2002). Risk aversion and incentive effects. American Economic Review, 92(5), 1644–1655.CrossRef Holt, C. A., & Laury, S. K. (2002). Risk aversion and incentive effects. American Economic Review, 92(5), 1644–1655.CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Kahneman, D., & Tversky, A. (1979). Prospect theory: An analysis of decision under risk. Econometrica, 47, 263-291.CrossRef Kahneman, D., & Tversky, A. (1979). Prospect theory: An analysis of decision under risk. Econometrica, 47, 263-291.CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Lam, T. C., & Small, K. A. (2001). The value of time and reliability: Measurement from a value pricing experiment. Transportation Research E, 37, 231–251.CrossRef Lam, T. C., & Small, K. A. (2001). The value of time and reliability: Measurement from a value pricing experiment. Transportation Research E, 37, 231–251.CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Loomes, G., Moffatt, P. G., & Sugden, R. (2002). A microeconometric test of alternative stochastic theories of risky choice. Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, 24, 103–130.CrossRef Loomes, G., Moffatt, P. G., & Sugden, R. (2002). A microeconometric test of alternative stochastic theories of risky choice. Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, 24, 103–130.CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Machina, M. J. (1989). Dynamic consistency and non-expected utility models of choice under uncertainty. Journal of Economic Literature, 27, 1622-1688. Machina, M. J. (1989). Dynamic consistency and non-expected utility models of choice under uncertainty. Journal of Economic Literature, 27, 1622-1688.
Zurück zum Zitat Magnac, T., & Thesmar, D. (2002). Identifying dynamic discrete choice processes. Econometrica, 70, 801–816.CrossRef Magnac, T., & Thesmar, D. (2002). Identifying dynamic discrete choice processes. Econometrica, 70, 801–816.CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Manski, C. F. (2004). Measuring expectations. Econometrica, 72, 1329–1376.CrossRef Manski, C. F. (2004). Measuring expectations. Econometrica, 72, 1329–1376.CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat McFadden, D. (1981). Chapter 5: Econometric models of probabilistic choices. In C. F. Manski, & D. McFadden (Eds.), Structural analysis of discrete data with economic applications (pp. 198–272). Chicago: University of Chicago Press. McFadden, D. (1981). Chapter 5: Econometric models of probabilistic choices. In C. F. Manski, & D. McFadden (Eds.), Structural analysis of discrete data with economic applications (pp. 198–272). Chicago: University of Chicago Press.
Zurück zum Zitat McFadden, D. (2001). Economic choices. Nobel lecture, December 2000. American Economic Review, 91(3), 351–378. McFadden, D. (2001). Economic choices. Nobel lecture, December 2000. American Economic Review, 91(3), 351–378.
Zurück zum Zitat Prelec, D. (1998). The probability weighting function. Econometrica, 66, 497–527.CrossRef Prelec, D. (1998). The probability weighting function. Econometrica, 66, 497–527.CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Quiggin, J. (1982). A theory of anticipated utility. Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization, 3, 323-343.CrossRef Quiggin, J. (1982). A theory of anticipated utility. Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization, 3, 323-343.CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Rust, J. (1994). Structural estimation of Markov decision processes. In R. Engle, & D. McFadden (Eds.), Handbook of econometrics (vol. 4, (pp. 3081–3143)). Amsterdam: Elsevier. Rust, J. (1994). Structural estimation of Markov decision processes. In R. Engle, & D. McFadden (Eds.), Handbook of econometrics (vol. 4, (pp. 3081–3143)). Amsterdam: Elsevier.
Zurück zum Zitat Schmeidler, D. (1989). Subjective probability and expected utility without additivity. Econometrica, 57, 571-587.CrossRef Schmeidler, D. (1989). Subjective probability and expected utility without additivity. Econometrica, 57, 571-587.CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Small, K. (1987). A discrete choice model for ordered alternatives. Econometrica, 55(2), 409–424.CrossRef Small, K. (1987). A discrete choice model for ordered alternatives. Econometrica, 55(2), 409–424.CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Train, K. (2003). Discrete choice methods with simulation. New York: Cambridge University Press. Train, K. (2003). Discrete choice methods with simulation. New York: Cambridge University Press.
Zurück zum Zitat Tversky, A., & Kahneman, D. (1992). Advances in prospect theory: cumulative representation of uncertainty. Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, 5(4), 297–323.CrossRef Tversky, A., & Kahneman, D. (1992). Advances in prospect theory: cumulative representation of uncertainty. Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, 5(4), 297–323.CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Van Soest, A., Kapteyn, A., & Zissimopoulos, J. (2007). Using stated preferences data to analyze preferences for full and partial retirement. IZA working paper 2785, Bonn. Van Soest, A., Kapteyn, A., & Zissimopoulos, J. (2007). Using stated preferences data to analyze preferences for full and partial retirement. IZA working paper 2785, Bonn.
Zurück zum Zitat Vissing-Jorgensen, A., & Attanasio, O. P. (2005). Stock-market participation, intertemporal substitution, and risk-aversion. American Economic Review, 93, 383–391.CrossRef Vissing-Jorgensen, A., & Attanasio, O. P. (2005). Stock-market participation, intertemporal substitution, and risk-aversion. American Economic Review, 93, 383–391.CrossRef
Metadaten
Titel
Risk, uncertainty and discrete choice models
verfasst von
Andre de Palma
Moshe Ben-Akiva
David Brownstone
Charles Holt
Thierry Magnac
Daniel McFadden
Peter Moffatt
Nathalie Picard
Kenneth Train
Peter Wakker
Joan Walker
Publikationsdatum
01.12.2008
Verlag
Springer US
Erschienen in
Marketing Letters / Ausgabe 3-4/2008
Print ISSN: 0923-0645
Elektronische ISSN: 1573-059X
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1007/s11002-008-9047-0

Weitere Artikel der Ausgabe 3-4/2008

Marketing Letters 3-4/2008 Zur Ausgabe