Predicting new service adoption with conjoint analysis: external validity of BDM-based incentive-aligned and dual-response choice designs

In this paper, we compare the standard, single-response choice-based conjoint (CBC) approach with three extended CBC procedures in terms of their external predictive validity and their ability to realistically capture consumers’ willingness to pay: (1) an incentive-aligned CBC mechanism (IA-CBC), (2) a dual-response CBC procedure (DR-CBC), and (3) an incentive-aligned dual-response CBC approach (IA-DR-CBC). Our empirical study features a unique sample of 2,679 music consumers who participated in a conjoint choice experiment prior to the market entry of a new music streaming service. To judge the predictive accuracy, we contacted the same respondents again 5 months after the launch and compared the predictions with the actual adoption decisions. The results demonstrate that IA-CBC and DR-CBC both increase the predictive accuracy. This result is promising because IA-CBC is not applicable to every research context so that DR-CBC provides a viable alternative. While we do not find an additional external validity improvement through the combination of both extensions, the IA-DR-CBC approach yields the most realistic willingness-to-pay estimates and should therefore be preferred when incentive alignment is feasible.