Spatiotemporal LULC change detection and future prediction for the Mand catchment using MOLUSCE tool

The changes in land use and land cover (LULC) are one of the primary forces for the worldwide climate, ecosystem, and environmental changes. A detail understanding of the dynamics of LULC changes is requisite for natural resource management and sustainable development. The present study region is the Mand catchment situated in Chhattisgarh, which has witnessed changes in LULC due to a rise in anthropogenic activities, such as an increase in population, urbanization, mining activity, and agriculture, as well as natural causes, such as climate change. The present study focused on spatiotemporal LULC change analysis and the subsequent prediction of future LULC patterns. A supervised image classification method in Geographic Information System (GIS) was used to analyze decadal LULC changes from 2001 to 2021. The Cellular Automata–Artificial Neural Network (CA–ANN) model, incorporated in the MOLUSCE (Modules of Land Use Change Evaluation) plugin of QGIS, was used for the future prediction of LULC from 2030 to 2040. The overall accuracy of LULC for 2001, 2010, and 2021 was obtained as 82, 86, and 90%, respectively, and the overall kappa coefficient was obtained as 0.79, 0.84, and 0.88, respectively. The decadal study of LULC change concludes that the agricultural land counts highest area of 29.21% as compared to other LULCs in 2001 which was further increased 31.76% in 2021. Increasing trend were also noticed for the open forest, shallow waterbody, fallow land, and settlement for the decadal years 2001 to 2021 by 1.7, 7.41, 7.57, and 2.55%, respectively. A decreasing trend was observed in LULC changes during the decadal years 2001 to 2021 for dense forest, deep water body, and barren land by 10.28, 0.66, and 10.24%, respectively. The LULC predictions for 2030 and 2040 indicate a similar trend to the prior years, with an increase in settlement, fallow land, agricultural land, open forests, shallow waterbodies, scrubland, and a decrease in dense forests, deep waterbodies, and barren land. This comprehensive analysis of the changes in LULC over an extended period will prove to be a valuable resource for policymakers and planners seeking to achieve sustainable development and effective management of the ecosystem within the study area.